Ethiopia's government forces are making significant advances towards Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, as they seek to regain control from the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Witnesses report that federal forces and pro-government militias have pushed back the TPLF fighters and are heading north towards Mekelle. The city has been an opposition stronghold, and its capture would be a major setback for the TPLF and its allies.
The conflict escalated on September 23, when the TPLF launched attacks into neighboring states, raising fears of a return to all-out conflict. However, the federal forces have made significant gains, with reports indicating that the TPLF militants and leaders are leaving Mekelle. While federal forces have not yet entered the city, government offices and police stations have been left without security personnel, sparking concerns about looting and lawlessness.
The TPLF's offensive had initially made gains in Afar and Amhara states, which border Tigray, with the help of local militias. However, they were pushed back this week, and Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters have launched a counteroffensive, pushing into Tigrayan territory. A pro-government militia, the Tigray Peace Forces, claimed to have recaptured Mekelle's main airport on Friday, although these claims could not be independently verified.
The conflict has triggered a breakdown in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea and Egypt, which it accuses of supporting the rebels. Addis Ababa expelled Eritrean and Egyptian diplomats on Thursday, prompting tit-for-tat expulsions in return. The African Union, based in Ethiopia, expressed concern over the heightened tensions, urging "maximum restraint" from all parties involved.
The humanitarian situation in the region is dire, with significant communications disruptions and media prevented from traveling to affected areas. A humanitarian source reported that the TPLF had been pushed entirely out of Afar, although the situation on the ground remains unclear. The conflict has already had a devastating impact, with estimates suggesting that the civil war between the TPLF and the federal government killed around 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022.
The TPLF's alliance with six other armed movements, formed last month to fight the Ethiopian federal government, has been dealt a significant blow if government forces capture Mekelle. The rebels' advances in Afar and Amhara states were initially seen as a major threat to the federal government, but the counteroffensive has shifted the momentum in favor of the government.
The international community remains concerned about the escalating conflict, with the African Union calling for restraint and an end to hostilities. The situation in Mekelle and the wider Tigray region remains fluid, with residents expressing fears about lawlessness and insecurity. As government forces close in on the city, the humanitarian situation is likely to deteriorate further, with many civilians caught in the middle of the conflict.
Key points
- Ethiopian government forces are advancing towards Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region.
- The conflict has triggered a breakdown in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea and Egypt.
- The humanitarian situation in the region is dire, with significant communications disruptions and concerns about lawlessness and insecurity.
