Ethiopia's GDP has been rebased to 31.86 trillion birr, equivalent to $210.7B, for the 2025/26 fiscal year. This revision aims to provide a more accurate representation of the country's economic activity. The new figures capture sectors that existed but were not fully counted under previous statistical methods. The rebasing exercise was conducted with technical assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
The revised GDP figures show a significant increase of 59.21% in measured output compared to the previous series. For the 2024/25 fiscal year, the previous GDP stood at 15.09 trillion birr, while the rebased figure reaches 24.03 trillion birr. The revision adopted the 2017 fiscal year (2024/25) as the new base year for national accounts. This change reflects a wider measure of economic activity, incorporating emerging and previously underrepresented sectors.
The updated methodology drew on additional statistical sources to better reflect the economy's actual structure. Ethiopian professionals led the exercise, which followed international statistical standards. The Ministry of National Strategy stated that the revised framework provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the economic structure. Reliable statistics are essential for guiding budgets, foreign trade strategy, and employment planning.
Minister of National Strategy Bereket Fesehatsion emphasized that the revised framework gives policymakers a more accurate view of the economic structure. He added that reliable statistics should guide budgets, foreign trade strategy, and employment planning, as well as investment decisions that depend on them. The revised GDP figures will alter key ratios, including debt-to-GDP and revenue-to-GDP figures.
A larger GDP denominator changes key ratios, but debt balances do not shrink, and tax revenue does not rise automatically. Investors must separate the statistical shift from genuine gains in export earnings and repayment capacity. The rebasing compresses headline ratio risk without changing the underlying fiscal position. It provides a better map, not a bigger economy overnight.
Improved national accounts support better policy, and more accurate data can sharpen capital allocation, improve budget planning, and strengthen the case for development finance. The government plans to repeat GDP rebasing every five years, keeping statistics closer to changes in production, prices, and business activity. This move aims to provide a more accurate representation of the country's economic activity.
Separately, Ethiopia's interest rates remain held at 16% amid high inflation. Investors will weigh this monetary context alongside the revised GDP series. They should watch how the new output figures enter sovereign debt assessments, IMF programme targets, and domestic revenue policy over the next fiscal cycle.
Key points
- The rebased GDP figures show a significant increase of 59.21% in measured output compared to the previous series.
- The revised framework provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the economic structure.
- Improved national accounts support better policy and more accurate data can sharpen capital allocation.
