An unusual coalition of forces, dubbed Tsmido, is emerging in Ethiopia, united by a common goal of weakening or removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. This alliance brings together various political and armed movements, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Fano, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and others. Despite their divergent views on Ethiopian history, constitutional structure, and territorial claims, these groups appear willing to cooperate tactically.
The Tsmido alliance is notable for its lack of a clear ideological convergence among its participants. Their understandings of Ethiopian sovereignty, federalism, self-determination, territory, and national identity remain sharply divergent. What holds the alliance together is a common adversary in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. This tactical cooperation may be sufficient for military purposes but is unlikely to be enough to construct a sustainable political future.
A significant challenge facing Tsmido is its inability to articulate a clear post-Abiy plan. The alliance's participants can temporarily bracket their differences, but requiring agreement on these questions before acting together might make the coalition impossible to sustain. This is where the idea of trial and error becomes relevant, with the trial being the combination of incompatible forces to alter the balance of power and weaken the federal government.
The potential error in this approach is severe, with possible consequences including the weakening or collapse of federal authority, competing armed movements asserting legitimacy, renewed territorial wars, expanded foreign intervention, and potentially even fragmentation of the state itself. Different participants in the alliance may have varying stakes and accept different consequences if the experiment goes wrong.
For instance, Tigrayan and Amhara actors would have to confront competing territorial claims, while Oromo nationalist forces would need to clarify the political meaning and limits of self-determination. Fano would need to determine what guarantees it requires concerning Ethiopia's territorial integrity and continued cohesion. These matters go to the core political identities of the prospective participants and cannot easily be resolved through ambiguity.
The Tsmido alliance is also problematic because it may be structurally unable to articulate a post-Abiy plan. The coalition requires some conception of a post-Abiy order for its military cooperation to possess coherent political meaning, but negotiating such an order in advance may expose contradictions that could destroy the coalition. The absence of a post-Abiy plan may be a condition that makes the alliance possible.
The strategy of Tsmido may operate according to a harsher logic: cooperate now because negotiating the future now could demonstrate that continued cooperation is impossible. If so, postponement is not merely a temporary weakness but part of the coalition's organizing logic. The consequences of this approach will be borne by Ethiopians, who have recently experienced the devastating effects of war on a massive scale.
Key points
- The Tsmido alliance lacks a clear post-Abiy plan, which could lead to severe consequences, including the weakening or collapse of federal authority.
- The alliance's participants have divergent views on key issues, including sovereignty, federalism, and self-determination.
- The strategy of Tsmido may be based on a logic of cooperation now and negotiation later, which could have far-reaching and unpredictable consequences.
