Rebels in the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia have seized local airports and launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) said they were once again in a "full-blown war" with the federal government. This development has raised fears of a repeat of the telecoms blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray during the last civil war in 2020-2022.
The last civil war in Tigray, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths. Locals are rushing to stock up on supplies amid fears of conflict. Online monitor Netblocks reported an "internet disruption in northern Ethiopia corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray". This has made it difficult for AFP to contact sources in the region by phone.
A humanitarian source in Afar reported "heavy fighting overnight" around the town of Abala, which sits in the mountains on the border with Tigray. The federal forces reportedly pushed the rebels from entering the town, using a drone in the process. Heavy clashes also occurred in North Wollo Zone of Amhara on Thursday, including around the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela.
Analysts believe the TPLF is repeating its strategy from the last war, pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa, while the offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti. Djibouti provides almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo, including fuel. The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The government has a significant military advantage, with a large arsenal of drones, an army numbering some 500,000, and the support of external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates. The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war.
The US embassy has expressed disappointment at the TPLF's large-scale offensive, siding with Ethiopia's government. The conflict could also draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea. As Tigray clashes intensify, locals are stockpiling food and airline cancels flights.
In Tigray, prices for basic goods have been spiking as locals race to stock up on supplies. There is panic in the community, with deep fears that banks, telecom networks, electricity and basic goods could be cut off again. The TPLF ruled the whole of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with Abiy's rise, eventually triggering a civil war marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence.
Key points
- The conflict in Tigray has spread to neighbouring states, with rebels launching attacks on Afar and Amhara.
- The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
- The US embassy has expressed disappointment at the TPLF's large-scale offensive, siding with Ethiopia's government.
