Ethiopian federal forces have recaptured Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, from opposition fighters. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which leads the opposition alliance, announced its retreat from the capital on Facebook, stating that the regional government would temporarily operate from another location. This development deals a significant blow to the opposition alliance.
The TPLF launched a fresh offensive against the federal government on September 23, prompting counterattacks and sparking fears of a return to the devastating civil war of 2020-2022. The conflict has raised concerns about the potential for violence to spread beyond Ethiopia's borders. As a result, the presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea are set to meet in Alamein, Egypt, to discuss the conflict.
A source close to a pro-government militia, the Tigray Peace Forces, reported that its fighters entered the center of Mekelle on Saturday afternoon, followed by the Ethiopian military. Federal troops were patrolling Mekelle and manning key institutions on Sunday, with communications restored for the first time in over a week. A commander with the pro-government militia stated that they had taken control of Mekelle and were marching forward.
Despite the recapture of Mekelle, businesses and shops remained closed, with owners moving stock to safer locations ahead of time, fearing looting and vandalism. Residents reported that there were no police, and they had to organize themselves to take care of security. A local business owner, Filmon Equar Hailu, stated that civilians looted government offices and hauled away equipment from police headquarters as rebel fighters withdrew.
The renewed fighting in Tigray raises the risk of a wider regional war, with analysts warning that the conflict threatens to escalate. The TPLF has long been the dominant force in Tigray, ousting a government-appointed administration earlier this year. The group was also the dominant group in a coalition that ruled Ethiopia between 1991 and 2018.
Eritrea, which shares a long border with the Tigray region, is directly involved in the conflict, accusing landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline. The African Union has urged restraint, warning that renewed tensions threaten the 2022 peace agreement that ended the previous hostilities in Tigray. The TPLF's war with the federal government killed approximately 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022.
The TPLF's leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, implied that the group would continue guerrilla-style attacks, as they did last time Mekelle fell. The group's strategy is to strike the enemy wherever they choose. The meeting in Alamein, taking place on the sidelines of an African Business Forum, aims to bring together regional leaders to discuss the conflict and find a peaceful resolution. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi urged dialogue, not confrontation, before the talks.
Key points
- Ethiopian federal forces recapture Mekelle, Tigray's capital.
- Regional leaders meet in Egypt to discuss the conflict.
- Renewed fighting in Tigray raises the risk of a wider regional war.
