The Eswatini government is planning to make financial provisions for the anticipated impact of El Niño in its 2027/28 national budget. This move comes as warnings of another severe drought raise fears of a repeat of the 2015/16 disaster that cost the economy an estimated E3.84 billion. Finance Minister Neal Rijkenberg stated that the government would assess the need for additional drought-response funding during the forthcoming budget preparation process.
The previous El Niño-induced drought inflicted economic losses equivalent to approximately 7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to World Bank estimates. The drought devastated maize production, killed thousands of cattle, and left more than half the population in need of humanitarian assistance. The 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought remains one of the country's most destructive climate-related disasters in recent history.
His Majesty King Mswati III has expressed concern about the impending climate pressure. Addressing the 81st session of the General Assembly in New York last month, the king warned that governments would have to draw on strained resources to protect vulnerable populations and livelihoods from the consequences of adverse weather conditions. Forecasts point to below-normal rainfall, unusually high temperatures, and heightened risks of agricultural drought across Southern Africa.
The economic implications of another drought are particularly significant for Eswatini. According to World Bank assessments, the 2015/16 drought caused economic losses estimated at E3.84 billion, representing approximately 7% of GDP and nearly 19% of government expenditure at the time. Agricultural production suffered considerably, with maize output declining by approximately 67% between the 2014/15 and 2015/16 planting seasons.
The government currently has E120 million available for emergency response through existing national disaster-management arrangements. Finance Minister Rijkenberg stated that several ministers were already issuing warnings and encouraging precautionary measures before the anticipated weather conditions materialized. The minister identified maize production and livestock grazing as two areas where the country could experience delayed economic consequences.
Rijkenberg highlighted that the timing of the anticipated drought would be central to determining when additional resources might be required. The financial implications of poor rainfall during the current planting season could become more apparent during 2027, when reduced harvests and deteriorating grazing conditions begin affecting farmers and households. The 2027/28 budget will be formulated over the coming months, providing an opportunity to incorporate additional expenditure should the forecasts translate into an actual drought.
The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns about Eswatini's fiscal position, with public debt projected to increase to approximately 50% of GDP during the 2026/27 financial year. The government has simultaneously been working to secure additional financing to meet existing commitments. Rijkenberg did not provide an estimate of how much additional funding the government might require if the country experiences another severe drought.
Key points
- The Eswatini government plans to make financial provision for El Niño relief in its 2027/28 national budget.
- The 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought cost the economy an estimated E3.84 billion.
- The government currently has E120 million available for emergency response through existing national disaster-management arrangements.
