The era of ultra-cheap smartphones may be coming to an end, with over 230 million annual shipments of sub-$200 devices forecast to disappear by 2030. This trend threatens affordability for millions of consumers in lower-income markets, according to a report by Counterpoint Research. Smartphones have become essential tools for empowering citizens, but flagship devices are often priced beyond the reach of many people. As a result, calls for affordable alternatives have grown louder. In South Africa, Communications and Digital Technologies Minister Solly Malatsi has emphasized the need to accelerate access to affordable smart devices.
The global smartphone market is expected to recover to near-2025 volumes by 2030, with global shipments reaching 1.2 billion units. However, the Smartphone Shipment Forecast by Price Band tracker projects that global shipments of entry-tier devices will decline by about 40% between 2025 and 2030. This contraction reflects the structural shock of the 2026-27 downturn, when rising memory and chipset costs, tougher minimum specifications, and reduced OEM willingness to support low-margin segments sharply cut availability. As a result, the affordable segment is unlikely to return to its previous standing.
Analysts warn that the recovery will not restore the entry tier, and the opportunity now shifts toward better-specced mainstream devices and premium products. Principal analyst Yang Wang noted that the smartphone market will recover in unit terms, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous standing. The report cautions that affordability pressures could extend replacement cycles, boost demand for used and refurbished devices, and slow mobile internet adoption in lower-income regions.
The decline of affordable smartphones could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for first-time users in lower-income markets. Grant Prince, head of impact investing at Counterpoint, highlighted the wider risk, stating that the missing middle is not simply a capital gap, but a bankability gap. The loss of affordable new smartphones could make it harder for people in lower-income markets to come online.
Counterpoint says addressing this risk will require broader affordability measures, including device financing, trade-in programs, subsidies, tax reform, and circular-device initiatives. The report notes that premium smartphones are forecast to expand at a 7% CAGR, driving revenue growth through foldables, advanced imaging, and on-device AI. Devices priced above $200 are expected to grow by 26%, while sub-$200 shipments will remain structurally smaller.
The South African government has been working to expand connectivity across the country, and Minister Malatsi has emphasized the need for affordable smart devices. However, the decline of ultra-cheap smartphones may hinder these efforts. As the market shifts toward more expensive devices, it may become increasingly challenging for lower-income consumers to access smartphones.
The trend toward more expensive smartphones is driven by various factors, including rising memory and chipset costs, tougher minimum specifications, and reduced OEM willingness to support low-margin segments. As a result, consumers may need to adapt to a new reality where affordable smartphones are no longer readily available.
Key points
- Over 230 million annual shipments of sub-$200 devices forecast to vanish by 2030
- Global shipments of entry-tier devices expected to decline by 40% between 2025 and 2030
- Premium smartphones forecast to expand at a 7% CAGR, driving revenue growth
