A recent analysis by SemiAnalysis suggests that SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is on track to build data centers with a capacity comparable to Google's in just 18 months. Google has taken 27 years to accumulate its current capacity. SpaceX plans to have around 13 gigawatts of capacity by the end of 2027. This projection is based on current developments in the United States.
Elon Musk has expressed confidence in SpaceX's ability to construct 10 GW of data center capacity by 2027. This is in addition to the 3 GW from the Colossus 1 and Colossus 2 sites acquired through the purchase of xAI in February 2026. The SemiAnalysis report considers this objective achievable, citing over 9 GW of potential capacity across various sites, with 3.6 GW already under construction.
The rapid progress of SpaceX's data center construction is attributed to its in-house production of equipment, leveraging Tesla's industrial capacity. Two data centers at Starbase, Texas, are advancing quickly. However, several challenges remain, including potential electricity shortages and unresolved issues with permits, network connections, and graphics processing unit supply.
The comparison between SpaceX and Google's data center capacities should be viewed with caution. The gigawatt measurement reflects the electrical power a site can absorb, not the quantity of calculations it performs. Alphabet, Google's parent company, does not publicly disclose its data center capacity in megawatts, making the equivalence estimate based on SemiAnalysis' projections.
Despite the rivalry, Google and SpaceX maintain a business relationship. Google pays SpaceX $920 million monthly to lease around 110,000 Nvidia graphics processors installed in data centers related to xAI. The contract runs from October 2026 to June 2029. This partnership indicates that the two companies can collaborate even as they compete in the data center market.
SemiAnalysis considers SpaceX's objective to be the largest data center capacity built by a single company in this period, equivalent to Google's 1999-2026 capacity. If achieved, SpaceX would become the fastest data center builder globally, surpassing its Chinese competitors. The analysis is based on precise data and takes into account the speed of construction and equipment production.
The challenges facing SpaceX include addressing potential electricity shortages, securing necessary permits, and ensuring a stable supply of graphics processing units. Overcoming these obstacles will be crucial for SpaceX to meet its ambitious data center capacity targets and establish itself as a leader in the industry.
Key points
- SpaceX aims to match Google's data center capacity in 18 months.
- Elon Musk is confident in constructing 10 GW of data center capacity by 2027.
- SpaceX's rapid progress is attributed to its in-house equipment production leveraging Tesla's industrial capacity.
