The United Nations has warned governments to take action as El Niño is expected to persist into early 2027. The World Meteorological Organisation says El Niño can alter rainfall patterns and increase the likelihood of extreme temperatures thousands of kilometres from the tropical Pacific. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said governments should use the warning to protect vulnerable populations and keep essential services running.
In Kenya, the warning comes as the country prepares for an expected wetter-than-normal October-December rainfall season. The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast a 99 per cent probability of above-normal rainfall during the October-December season, with the rains potentially extending into early 2027. However, Kenya Met officials have cautioned that El Niño alone does not determine the amount or distribution of rainfall in Kenya.
Nairobi has already experienced the consequences of intense rainfall this year. On March 6, about 160 millimetres of rain fell in one night at Wilson Airport, overwhelming drainage systems and flooding several parts of the city. The National Police Service later reported that 36 people had died in Nairobi during the March floods, the highest number recorded in any region during the nationwide disaster.
Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja said the intensity of the rainfall demonstrated the challenge facing the capital when large volumes of water fall within a short period. He said Nairobi’s flood vulnerability is also linked to the division of responsibilities and financing for roads and drainage infrastructure. Sakaja added that resources should follow the responsibilities assigned to counties under the Constitution.
The governor said children and residents of informal settlements remain particularly vulnerable when rivers overflow and drainage systems are overwhelmed. He said Nairobi’s historical settlement patterns had also contributed to the exposure of communities living close to rivers. Communities living in areas such as Kibra, Mukuru, Mathare and Korogocho are among those exposed when flooding occurs.
Sakaja said the county had started issuing early warnings and would identify residents in high-risk areas for possible evacuation. Nairobi has also accelerated drainage works to mitigate the impact of the expected floods. The governor emphasized the need for the county to be prepared and take proactive measures to protect its residents.
The UN warning and Nairobi's preparations come as the city braces for more floods. The expected El Niño rains pose a significant threat to the city, and authorities are working to minimize the impact. With the October-December rainfall season approaching, Nairobi is taking steps to protect its residents and infrastructure from the potential consequences of the El Niño phenomenon.
Key points
- El Niño is expected to persist into early 2027, with the phenomenon forecast to strengthen towards the end of this year.
