October marks a significant month for global agricultural and food organisations, commemorating the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945. This year's World Food Day celebrations, however, have a worrying outlook for 2027, particularly in southern Africa. Many countries in the region face rising costs due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have increased energy costs and complicated supply chains. The likely El Niño drought is expected to compound the challenge, potentially pushing poverty up across most of southern Africa.
The Food and Agriculture Organization suggests that the region may face challenging conditions worse than the 2015-16 drought. In late June 2026, the organisation stated that the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region's worst drought in over a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance. The drought strained livestock, water systems, and pasturelands, pushing over 8 million people into food insecurity. The forecast indicates a greater than 50% probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.
Fears are rising that the southern Africa region will face this challenge at a time when global humanitarian aid is less available. Recent wars in the Black Sea and Middle East have constrained resources that would ordinarily be channelled to natural causes of poverty, such as the expected drought. The US Administration's decision to abandon US Aid has also reduced the World Food Programme budget, which relied heavily on US Aid funding. This may leave the region with fewer resources to assist with the expected drought.
The region is already at a point where farmers have started planting crops for the 2026-27 season, although some are aware of the coming challenges. Governments have a limited window to assist with the current season. Countries that can import need to ensure they have access to food supplies and that the private sector has a clearer pathway to import. This may require suspending bans on non-genetically-modified grains during the time of food needs.
Ensuring feed supplies for livestock is another important consideration. Where fiscal space allows, household assistance may be necessary in the coming months, depending on whether the season turns out as feared. In countries with agricultural supplies in the region, imposing an export ban to protect domestic supplies may be tempting. However, such policy actions typically exacerbate the challenge, reducing incentives for agribusinesses and farmers to expand production.
South Africa remains in a more fortunate position than much of southern Africa, with the 2025-26 season being a period of abundance in grains and oilseed. The maize harvest was a record 17.5 million tonnes, against the annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes. Stocks were also ample at the start of the year, improving supplies. South African agribusinesses are better placed to import when supply glitches occur, and the country's dam water supplies are over 80% full.
In essence, southern Africa is likely to see a rise in poverty in 2027 due to the El Niño drought. While South Africa is as exposed to the drought challenge as the rest of the region, the impact may be much milder. The country may have to shoulder the region's challenges and export produce to its neighbours to stabilise regional food needs. Wandile Sihlobo, the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land, emphasised the need for transparent and timely information sharing to enable market participants to make informed decisions.
Key points
- El Niño drought likely to push poverty up across southern Africa
- 61 million people in need of assistance due to drought
- South Africa may have to export produce to stabilise regional food needs
