Africa's public health and policy leaders have warned that El Niño has the potential to trigger a public health emergency in affected countries. The situation is compounded by increasingly unpredictable and extreme climate change. A policy paper titled 'Super El Niño Threatens a Public Health Emergency in Africa' was published in The Lancet, calling on the World Health Organisation (WHO) to declare El Niño a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
The paper was authored by several prominent health experts, including Malawi's former Minister of Health, Dr Peter Kumpalume, and Zimbabwe's Minister of Health and Child Care, Dr Douglas Mombeshora. Other authors include Senegal's Minister of Health and Social Action, Professor Ibrahima Sy, and Namibia's Minister of Health and Social Services, Dr Esperance Luvindao. The authors argue that a coordinated and adequately funded response is needed urgently, especially in affected countries.
The paper states that preventing avoidable deaths will require robust WHO coordination, repurposed and streamlined access to climate financing, and rapid scale-up of climate and health surveillance. The authors also call for activation of preparedness plans, strengthened early warning and response systems, and surge responses for extreme weather. The paper emphasizes that countries bearing historical responsibility for the climate crisis should help finance an expanded response in climate-vulnerable low- and middle-income countries.
According to the paper, the projected toll of heat-related deaths in Africa is expected to surpass that in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. There are heightened risks of floods, droughts, and rainfall anomalies in Southern and Central Africa. Compounding hazards are converging around water insecurity, wildfires, infectious disease outbreaks, and disrupted healthcare systems, with Africa bearing little responsibility for the climate crisis while suffering disproportionate impacts.
In Malawi, the El Niño Response Plan requires K488.5 billion. As of the first week of September, only K163.7 billion had been mobilised. The International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri) simulation models predict that El Nino and the Gulf-related price shock could reduce Malawi's Growth Domestic Product by between one percent and seven percent. The institute suggests that nearly half a million more Malawians could fall into poverty in 2027 amid high fertiliser costs and El Nino crop losses.
The Ifpri blog post titled 'El Nino and Rising Fertiliser Costs: How Vulnerable is Malawi in 2027?' states that the 495 000 additional people would add to the 17.3 million Malawians already expected to live below the $3-a-day poverty line. The paper also argues that the crisis presents an opportunity for Africa to contribute key lessons to the global response, using the urgency of El Niño to reshape health systems for a changing climate.
The authors of the policy paper call on other African states to request a PHEIC determination now and on WHO to give this its fullest attention. The situation in Malawi and other affected countries requires immediate attention and action to mitigate the potential health impacts of El Niño. The international community is urged to provide support and financing to address the crisis.
Key points
- The World Health Organisation is urged to declare El Niño a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
- El Niño could trigger a public health emergency in affected countries, with Malawi being one of them.
- The crisis presents an opportunity for Africa to contribute key lessons to the global response.
