The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted that the El Niño phenomenon will continue to intensify and reach its peak in December 2026. According to the organization's monthly update on seasonal climate predictions, the temperature of the sea surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to reach record levels between October and December 2026. This is a clear indication that the El Niño phenomenon will have a significant impact on global climate and economies.
The WMO has stated that there is a 100% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will continue until February 2027, and it may become one of the strongest since at least 1950. The organization's Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, has stated that the El Niño phenomenon has established itself and is intensifying rapidly. The predictions are based on the consensus of 13 national and international meteorological and climate centers.
The El Niño phenomenon is measured by the Niño 3.4 index, which tracks changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The index has risen from +1.6°C in June to +2.5°C in August 2026, and is expected to reach an average change of +3.7°C between October and December, surpassing the previous record of +2.6°C set in 2015-2016.
The El Niño phenomenon does not generate additional heat, but rather enhances the release of heat accumulated in the ocean into the atmosphere. This is expected to lead to higher-than-normal temperatures and severe heatwaves, with more humid conditions in the central and eastern Pacific, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and northern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, North and South America.
Conversely, the phenomenon is expected to lead to drought conditions in the western Pacific, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and the Caribbean. The WMO and its member states are working to enhance monitoring, warning, and preparedness systems to mitigate the impacts of the phenomenon.
The WMO and its partners are coordinating with national meteorological services and other stakeholders to raise awareness about the El Niño phenomenon and its potential impacts. The phenomenon and its implications are being discussed at the Global Heat Forum, which is being held in Bangkok from October 6-9, with the participation of around 600 experts.
The El Niño phenomenon has significant implications for global climate and economies, and it is essential to monitor and prepare for its impacts. The WMO's predictions and warnings will help countries and communities to take necessary precautions and mitigate the effects of the phenomenon.
Key points
- El Niño phenomenon expected to reach peak in December 2026
- 100% probability of El Niño phenomenon continuing until February 2027
- El Niño phenomenon may become one of the strongest since at least 1950
