El Niño, a complex weather term, has significant implications for South Africa, affecting everyday life, from household temperatures to farm yields and grocery bills. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasts that El Niño will become very strong towards the end of 2026 and continue into early 2027, bringing changes to global temperatures and rainfall patterns. This phenomenon occurs when parts of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, altering winds and air movement, which in turn affect weather patterns thousands of kilometers away.
El Niño is linked to a greater risk of hotter conditions and changes in rainfall, including drier conditions in southern Africa. The WMO warns that El Niño increases the risk of extreme heat, which can be life-threatening, especially for vulnerable populations such as children, older people, outdoor workers, and those with pre-existing medical conditions. As a result, households may need to use more water to stay cool, spend more time seeking shade, and rely more heavily on fans or air conditioning.
South Africa may experience drier conditions due to El Niño, which can impact rainfall, dam levels, and river flows. This, in turn, affects farmers who rely heavily on rainfall, particularly those without irrigation. A dry season can lead to smaller harvests, and for livestock farmers, dry conditions can mean less grass for animals to eat and less water for them to drink. The effects of El Niño can have a ripple effect, impacting food availability and prices.
The previous major El Niño event resulted in drought conditions, contributing to agricultural losses across Southern Africa. If farmers produce less food, there can be less food available in the market, putting pressure on food prices. While El Niño does not automatically mean food prices will rise, it is one of the factors that can influence prices, along with fuel, transport costs, electricity, imports, and global prices.
Water scarcity is another significant concern during prolonged dry weather. When rainfall is low, dams and rivers receive less water, and hot weather causes more water to evaporate. As a result, people tend to use more water, creating a challenging situation with less water coming in and increased demand. South Africans who have experienced water restrictions understand how quickly a dry spell can become part of everyday life.
While El Niño is associated with drought, it is also possible to experience heavy rain and flooding during the event. Local weather patterns can vary greatly, and a place can have long periods without enough rain, followed by a huge amount of rain in a short period, causing flooding. No two El Niño events are exactly the same, and other weather patterns can influence how strongly its effects are felt in different parts of South Africa.
Hot and dry conditions can create dangerous conditions for wildfires, threatening homes, farms, wildlife, and infrastructure. To prepare, ordinary South Africans can monitor weather warnings, use water carefully, and take heat warnings seriously. Farmers can use seasonal forecasts to make informed decisions about planting and livestock, while municipalities and health authorities can prepare for possible pressure on water supplies and periods of extreme heat.
Key points
- El Niño is expected to become very strong towards the end of 2026 and continue into early 2027.
- The phenomenon can affect rainfall, dam levels, and river flows, impacting farmers and food prices.
- El Niño increases the risk of extreme heat and wildfires, emphasizing the need for preparation and caution.
