Egypt's Information and Decision Support Center, affiliated with the Cabinet, has reviewed the International Energy Agency's report on global oil market developments. The report, titled "Oil Market Report - September 2026," discusses the impact of supply disruptions on market balances, price trends, and demand. The review comes as part of the center's efforts to monitor key global economic developments and their impact on energy markets.
The report notes that the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has delayed the return of oil flows to normal levels, prompting the agency to lower its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 2.5 million barrels per day. The decline is mainly attributed to transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks, particularly in Asian markets. This reduction in demand is a significant development in the global oil market.
The report also highlights a decline in global oil production in August 2026, with a decrease of 1.6 million barrels per day compared to the previous month, reaching 100.1 million barrels per day. This decline is largely due to the continued halt of over 10 million barrels per day of Gulf Arab production due to security risks. The reduction in production has significant implications for the global oil market.
The report forecasts a decline in global supply in 2026 by 5.7 million barrels per day, reaching 100.7 million barrels per day, with a full recovery in supplies expected in 2027. The disruptions in supplies have also affected global refining activity, with August 2026 witnessing a decline in oil refining to 81.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.2 million barrels per day compared to the previous year.
The report notes a significant decline in global oil inventories in August 2026, with a reduction of 95 million barrels, bringing the total decline since February 2026 to 507 million barrels, at an average daily reduction of 2.8 million barrels. The decline in inventories is attributed to lower stocks in non-OECD countries, particularly China, despite higher commercial stocks in OECD countries.
The report highlights a notable increase in benchmark oil prices, with the dated Brent average price rising by $7.61 per barrel in August to $91 per barrel, before climbing to $113.48 per barrel on September 9. The increase is attributed to escalating security risks and supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia, leading to increased pressure on crude markets and higher shipping costs.
The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global oil market developments amid the impact of geopolitical tensions on supplies, demand, and prices. The ongoing tensions may lead to further pressure on markets, highlighting the need for solutions to restore energy flows and promote global market stability. The International Energy Agency's report provides valuable insights into the current state of the global oil market.
Key points
- The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has delayed the return of oil flows to normal levels.
- The report forecasts a decline in global supply in 2026 by 5.7 million barrels per day.
- The disruptions in supplies have affected global refining activity, with a decline in oil refining to 81.4 million barrels per day in August 2026.
