Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State has set an ambitious target of delivering 2.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election. Okpebholo made this pledge during a one-million-youth march organised by the City Boy Movement in support of his administration and Tinubu's re-election. He argued that the "one man, one vote" principle and the impact of the Federal Government's economic reforms would help the All Progressives Congress (APC) achieve the target.
Edo State has a registered voter population of 2,865,263, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This represents an increase of 364,182 voters, or about 14.6 per cent, from the 2,501,081 registered voters in the 2023 general elections. However, Okpebholo's 2.5 million target would account for about 87.3 per cent of the entire 2027 registered electorate in the state, making it a challenging goal to achieve.
In the 2023 presidential election, President Tinubu secured 144,471 votes in Edo State, representing about 5.8 per cent of the 2,501,081 registered voters at the time. To meet Okpebholo's target, the APC would need to increase its vote tally by 2,355,529 votes, or roughly 17 times the number of votes Tinubu secured in the state in 2023. This would require a significant increase in voter turnout and support for the APC.
Voter turnout is a crucial factor in achieving Okpebholo's target. Nationally, about 24.9 million votes were cast from a final register of 93.47 million voters in the 2023 presidential election, representing a turnout of roughly 26.7 per cent. If only half of Edo's 2,865,263 registered voters turned out in 2027, the total number of voters would be about 1.43 million, far below the governor's 2.5 million target.
Professor Atah Pine, a political scientist at Benue State University, described Okpebholo's statement as political rhetoric rather than a scientific projection of the number of votes that will be cast. Pine said Okpebholo was likely using the figure to communicate his intention to deliver Edo to Tinubu by a wide margin. He noted that several factors influencing voter participation, such as voter apathy and distrust in the system, cannot be determined ahead of the election.
Okpebholo has cited his administration's projects in healthcare and education as evidence of the benefits of the Federal Government's economic reforms. He said the state had built more than 108 primary healthcare centres, renovated over 87 primary and secondary schools, and increased subvention to higher institutions from N41 million to more than N700 million. These projects, he argued, demonstrate the positive impact of the reforms and the APC's governance.
The feasibility of Okpebholo's target remains uncertain, with experts cautioning against assigning a fixed percentage to the number of votes the governor can deliver. They argue that voters ultimately make individual choices, and factors influencing their decisions are outside the governor's control. The APC's ability to achieve Okpebholo's target will depend on various factors, including voter turnout, support for the party, and the overall political landscape in Edo State.
Key points
- Governor Okpebholo aims to deliver 2.5 million votes for President Tinubu in 2027.
- Edo State has a registered voter population of 2,865,263.
- Experts question the feasibility of Okpebholo's target due to factors such as voter turnout and apathy.
