DRC Fights Three Wars at Once: Virus, Plunder, and Palace Power Struggle

The Democratic Republic of Congo is engaged in three simultaneous wars: against the Ebola virus, against plunder in its copper and cobalt belt, and for control of the palace. The Ebola outbreak, in its Bundibugyo form, has surpassed 11,000 confirmed cases and killed roughly one in every two people infected. The presidency has sent task forces to seize equipment and detain foreign nationals accused of mining illegally. Meanwhile, former President Joseph Kabila has emerged in Goma, leading a political-military movement backed by Rwanda.

The Ebola outbreak is the DRC's 17th, declared on May 15 after deaths in Ituri province. By August 7, it had reached just over 4,000 cases, but three months later, it has more than doubled. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 11,021 confirmed cases and 5,358 deaths as of November 8. The World Health Organisation has pushed for a trial of the Ervebo vaccine, but until something works, the DRC is fighting with tools from 1976: contact tracing, isolation, safe burials, and public trust.

Public trust and state capacity are weak links in the fight against Ebola. Health workers have been working without salaries as the virus spreads. A response that cannot pay its nurses cannot expect to hold a line. In mid-September, government officials insisted that cases were declining, but the data did not support this. Every month of official optimism is a month of lost credibility with communities whose cooperation decides how this ends. The WHO and Africa CDC launched a joint plan costing $518 million, covering June to November, but November is now half over, and the outbreak is not under control.

The DRC has also launched a crackdown on illegal mining in its copper and cobalt belt. A government task force seized over 500 pieces of mining equipment and detained more than 60 foreign nationals accused of mining illegally. Congolese civilians and military personnel were also arrested. Justice Minister Guillaume Ngefa Atondoko Andali ordered judicial investigations into suspected mining fraud, illegal exploitation, and mineral smuggling in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.

The crackdown on illegal mining is not an isolated operation. Bloomberg reported that about 300 Chinese nationals had been detained over alleged illegal mining on concessions belonging to other companies. Kinshasa has also suspended a key artisanal mining regulator. In April, the mines minister ordered illegal gold sites closed in Ituri and had heavy machinery confiscated. Metal prices are high, and Congo is the world's largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer.

The third war is for control of the palace, with former President Joseph Kabila leading a rebel-backed bid for power. President Félix Tshisekedi has responded with accusations of treason, a push to change the constitution, and a bet on Washington. The three wars have different weapons and enemies but share one battlefield: the vast, mineral-rich, and poorly governed east. The question is whether Kinshasa still has the capacity to govern its own territory.

The outcome of these wars will have significant implications for the DRC and its people. The Ebola outbreak, if not contained, could spread further, crossing borders into neighboring countries. The crackdown on illegal mining may bring in much-needed revenue, but it also requires the prosecution of soldiers, officials, and politicians who profit from the trade. The palace power struggle will determine the course of the country's politics and stability.

Key points

• The DRC faces three simultaneous wars: against Ebola, against plunder in its copper and cobalt belt, and for control of the palace.
• The Ebola outbreak has surpassed 11,000 confirmed cases and killed roughly one in every two people infected.
• The crackdown on illegal mining has resulted in the seizure of equipment and the detention of foreign nationals accused of mining illegally.