As the US midterm elections approach, Democrats are focusing on down-ballot races to weaken the Republican lead in state legislatures. With over 6,100 seats up for election, Democrats aim to seize on the anti-incumbent mood and low popularity of former President Trump. According to John Kennedy, a political science professor at West Chester University, state governments have a greater impact on everyday lives than the federal government. Republicans currently control 28 state legislatures, while Democrats control 18.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is targeting districts in several states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into these races to flip Republican-held chambers. If successful, this could give Democratic governors greater power to pass their policy priorities or block GOP initiatives. In Arizona, for example, Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate and a six-seat advantage in the House of Representatives, giving Democrats a chance to take one or both chambers.
In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is seeking re-election and hopes to gain a trifecta – full control of the state's executive and legislative branches. This would allow him to implement his policy priorities, such as raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour and codifying abortion rights into law. Shapiro's Republican challenger, State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, has accused him of using the divided legislature as an excuse for not getting things done. Garrity believes that real leadership involves negotiating with the opposing party.
The elections for Pennsylvania's divided legislature highlight the stakes. Democrats have not won a trifecta in over 30 years, and it could come down to the results of a few close state Senate races in the Philadelphia suburbs. If Democrats gain control, Shapiro plans to take action on several issues, including affordable housing and utility company regulations. The governor's ability to work with a Democratic legislature could lead to significant policy changes.
In other states, Democrats are looking to reduce Republican power or break supermajorities that prevent Democratic governors from vetoing bills. In North Carolina and Kansas, Democrats hope to create a bulwark against Republican governors pushing through legislation. New Hampshire is a key target, where Democrats aim to win a majority in the 400-member state House of Representatives to check Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte's power.
The Republican State Leadership Committee has acknowledged that 2026 poses a challenging environment for state Republicans. The committee is taking a defensive-first posture to hold onto seats already held by the GOP. Democrats, on the other hand, are optimistic about their chances, citing the anti-incumbent mood and low popularity of former President Trump. The outcome of these elections could have significant implications for state policy and governance.
The winners of these elections could use redistricting to reinforce their gains. After the rush of mid-decade congressional redistricting before the 2026 elections, some legislatures might turn toward redistricting their own chambers in the next election cycle. This could solidify the power of the winning party and shape state policy for years to come. Ultimately, the outcome of these elections will determine the balance of power in state legislatures and have a lasting impact on American politics.
Key points
- Democrats are targeting Republican-held state legislatures in several key states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.
- The outcome of these elections could give Democratic governors greater power to pass their policy priorities or block GOP initiatives.
- The winners of these elections could use redistricting to reinforce their gains and shape state policy for years to come.
