The Political Intelligence Group of Politico.ng has announced a review of its November projection for the 2027 presidential election following a Federal High Court ruling that nullified the leadership of the African Democratic Congress led by former Senate President David Mark. The group stated that the ruling, which also invalidated decisions by the Mark-led leadership, could impact political calculations around former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who emerged as the party's presidential candidate at its May 25 primary.
Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja nullified the Mark-led interim National Working Committee and declared its actions, including the presidential primary, invalid. In response, PIG Chairman Lai Omotola stated that the development made it necessary to adjust the November electoral projection, particularly the assessment of Atiku's position in the race. The group's November projection had indicated a closely contested race among President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, and Atiku.
The November projection had shown Tinubu leading by a narrow margin, with Obi in second place and Atiku third, with relatively close margins separating the three contenders. However, PIG said the court ruling introduced a new dimension into the electoral calculations, particularly in the North, where Atiku has a significant political base. If the judgment is upheld on appeal and Atiku is eventually excluded from the ballot, Tinubu could record a wider margin of victory, particularly in northern states.
Some northern voters might prefer Tinubu to complete another four-year term rather than an eight-year presidency under Obi. The group presented this assessment as conditional on the court ruling surviving the appeal process. The ADC and Atiku have rejected the judgment and plan to challenge it in court. Atiku has maintained that his presidential campaign would continue despite the ruling.
PIG stated that its December edition would provide a comprehensive assessment of the electoral implications of the court decision, taking into account the outcome of the ADC's appeal and other emerging political developments. The group added that the December projection would reflect the latest developments in the contest for the 2027 presidency.
The court ruling has created uncertainty around Atiku's candidacy, and the ADC's appeal process will be crucial in determining the party's fate in the 2027 presidential election. The development has also raised questions about the potential impact on the overall electoral landscape in Nigeria.
Key stakeholders, including political analysts and party officials, will be closely watching the appeal process and its potential implications for the 2027 presidential election. The outcome of the appeal will likely have significant consequences for the candidates and parties involved.
Key points
- The court ruling may impact Atiku Abubakar's position in the 2027 presidential election.
- The Political Intelligence Group will review its November projection for the 2027 presidential election.
- The outcome of the ADC's appeal process will be crucial in determining the party's fate in the 2027 presidential election.
