The US midterm elections on November 3 could have significant implications for the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to Bodom Matungulu, president of the RDC STRATÉGIE think tank, the elections may alter the level of US engagement in the crisis in eastern Congo. For Kinshasa, the goal is no longer to obtain the support of a single president but to transform a fragile agreement into a lasting American interest.
The agreements concluded in Washington between the DRC and Rwanda have opened a new diplomatic sequence. For the first time in a long time, the security of eastern Congo has been explicitly linked to US strategic interests, including access to critical minerals, diversification of supply chains, Western investments, and competition with China. This convergence offers Kinshasa leverage it did not previously have against Kigali and the AFC/M23.
However, this new dynamic also creates a worrying dependence on Washington's attention. The effectiveness of the deterrent device still relies heavily on political attention from Washington. The US midterm elections must be seen as a geopolitical deadline for Congo. While they will not automatically call into question the commitments made by the US executive, they may reduce the time, energy, and political capital that the White House dedicates to them.
The main risk for the DRC would not be a spectacular denunciation of the agreements but their gradual deprioritization. US foreign policy is always a hierarchy of priorities, and Washington must manage multiple simultaneous crises, including the war against Iran, tensions around Israel and Gaza, Ukraine, China, energy routes, and trade frictions. In such an environment, an African issue can lose visibility without officially losing importance.
The relationship between Washington and Kinshasa has a transactional dimension, with the US viewing the DRC as both a regional security issue and a crucial source of copper, cobalt, tantalum, and other resources essential to its industry. This convergence is a historical opportunity, provided that peace does not become merely a logistical prerequisite for access to minerals. For the DRC, the equation must be reversed: its resources must contribute to producing security, infrastructure, industrialization, technological transfer, and increased sovereignty.
Rwanda is well aware of the fragility of international engagement subject to political cycles. If the Rwandan authorities believe that the US president is weakened, that the Middle East is absorbing Washington's attention, and that a recomposition is underway after November, they may be tempted to play for time: negotiate, partially implement, contest interpretations, and maintain just enough cooperation to avoid a rupture.
To avoid this scenario, Kinshasa must build a bipartisan coalition, working with both Republicans and Democrats to ensure that its interests are represented regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections. By emphasizing critical minerals, the Lobito corridor, US investments, and competition with China, the DRC can find common ground with Republicans, while with Democrats, it must focus on protecting civilians, territorial integrity, human rights, and international law.
Key points
- The US midterm elections may impact the level of engagement in the Congo crisis.
- The DRC's relationship with the US has a transactional dimension.
- Kinshasa must build a bipartisan coalition to ensure its interests are represented.
