Somalia's federal system was designed to distribute political authority among regions and communities, but concerns have emerged about the concentration of influential positions in key institutions. The issue is not about excluding members of one clan from public office, but rather ensuring that power is shared fairly among all communities. Every Somali citizen should have the right to participate in government regardless of clan identity. The concern arises when strategically important institutions and territories appear to be dominated by the same sub-clan.
Somalia's political system has relied on arrangements intended to accommodate the country's major clan communities. The 4.5 formula was developed to distribute political representation among the major clan families and minority communities. The Constitution also establishes a federal structure in which federal member states are represented at the national level, including through the Upper House of Parliament. This system aims to ensure that all communities have a voice in national decision-making.
Hirshabelle is a central example of these concerns. The state was created in 2016 from Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle, but its political settlement has repeatedly been contested due to disagreements over the distribution of power between the two regions. The election of Ali Abdullahi Hussein Guudlaawe, an Abgaal politician, as president in 2020 generated concerns among Hawadle political figures about the balance of power within Hirshabelle. These disagreements have continued into the current electoral cycle.
Banadir and Villa Somalia represent another important dimension of the debate. Mogadishu is the seat of Somalia's Federal Government, while the Banadir Regional Administration is directly administered under the federal system. Influence over Banadir carries considerable national significance, and Villa Somalia plays a decisive role in national appointments, policy-making, and political negotiations. When influence over these institutions is perceived as concentrated within one clan, other communities may question whether the federal system is operating inclusively.
Inclusive governance requires not only constitutional authority but also transparency, consultation, and confidence among the communities affected by political decisions. Institutional safeguards can strengthen confidence in the system, including transparent appointments, balanced representation, effective federalism, constitutional oversight, inclusive security institutions, and regular consultation. These safeguards would help ensure that political competition is managed through institutions rather than through clan-based confrontation.
To address these concerns, Somalia should pursue a political culture in which public office belongs to citizens and constitutional institutions, not to clans. Fair representation does not require excluding any community, but rather ensuring that no single community is perceived as having permanent ownership of the country's most important political institutions. Somalia should review power-sharing arrangements in Hirshabelle, strengthen the constitutional status and representative governance of Banadir, and improve transparency in appointments to federal and regional offices.
The long-term test of Somalia's federal system will be whether every community can see itself represented in government, whether regional grievances can be resolved peacefully, and whether political authority can change hands through legitimate constitutional and electoral processes. These principles are essential to building a stable and genuinely inclusive Somali state.
Key points
- Somalia's federal system faces concerns over concentration of power in Villa Somalia, Banadir, and Hirshabelle among politicians associated with the Abgaal clan.
- Inclusive governance requires transparency, consultation, and confidence among communities affected by political decisions.
- Somalia should pursue a political culture in which public office belongs to citizens and constitutional institutions, not to clans.
