According to a 2023 Arab Barometer survey, China has emerged as the most popular partner in 12 Arab countries, while support for the US and Europe continues to decline. In Iraq, a 2022 survey found that 54% of respondents had a positive view of China, compared to 35% for the US. This trend is also evident in other countries, including Jordan, where 67% of respondents considered China the regional power most supportive of Palestinian rights.
The survey results also show that in Tunisia, support for China's role in the Middle East increased from 70% to 75% following events in October 2023, while approval ratings for the US dropped from 40% to 10%. In Egypt, over 64% of respondents preferred stronger relations with China compared to the US. In Libya, 49% of respondents had a positive view of China, compared to 37% for the US.
In Algeria, 68% of respondents viewed China positively, compared to 46% for the US. In Morocco, 79% of respondents had a positive view of China in 2024, a 16% increase from 2022. These numbers suggest that China's long-term strategy of economic engagement, infrastructure investment, trade, and diplomatic flexibility is translating into increasingly positive perceptions among Arab and North African publics.
The shift in public opinion raises questions about the effectiveness of the US approach to the region, which has traditionally relied on security partnerships, political pressure, and military power. Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat and author, argues that the 21st century will be the "Asian century," with China and India surpassing the US to become the world's first and second-largest economies by 2050.
Mahbubani predicts that Europe's economy will be half the size of China's by 2050, and that the US will be relegated to third place. This forecast is based on current economic trends, with China's nominal GDP already rivaling that of the European Union. The implications of this shift are significant, particularly for countries in the Middle East and Africa that are seeking to maintain their sovereignty and achieve economic development.
As the global landscape evolves, countries in the region will face significant challenges in maintaining their independence and building their economies. One potential strategy for these countries is to diversify their economic partnerships and diplomatic relationships, which could help them protect their sovereignty and achieve their development goals.
The growing competition between China and the US for influence in the Middle East and Africa is likely to intensify in the coming years, with significant implications for the region's economies and politics. As countries navigate this complex landscape, they will need to balance their relationships with major powers while pursuing their own development agendas.
Key points
- China's growing influence in the Middle East and Africa is driven by its economic engagement, infrastructure investment, and diplomatic flexibility.
- The US approach to the region, which has traditionally relied on security partnerships and military power, may not be effective in the long term.
- Countries in the region may need to diversify their economic partnerships and diplomatic relationships to protect their sovereignty and achieve their development goals.
