Cabo Verde's demographic landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with the population aging at a rapid pace. According to the World Bank, in 1990, 45.7% of residents were under 15 years old, making Cabo Verde a country with a predominantly young population. However, by 2010, this proportion had decreased to 32.2%, and by 2024, it had further declined to 25.6%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 65 or older increased from 4.7% in 1990 to 6.9% in 2024.
The country's aging index, which relates the elderly population to the youth population, has nearly tripled over the past generation. In 1990, there were 10 elderly individuals per 100 young people, whereas today, this number has risen to nearly 27. The origin of this phenomenon is attributed to a good cause - an increase in life expectancy at birth, which rose from 63.9 years in 1990 to 76.2 years in 2024. Additionally, infant mortality rates have decreased significantly, from 42 deaths per 1,000 live births to less than 11.
However, the second cause of aging is of a different nature. The total fertility rate in Cabo Verde has declined substantially, from 1.97 children per woman in 2015 to 1.51 in 2024, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. This rate is also significantly lower than the average for sub-Saharan Africa, which stands at 4.26. Furthermore, the country has experienced a persistently negative migration balance, resulting in a stagnant population growth rate. According to the 2021 census, the resident population stood at 491,233, almost the same number as in 2010.
The rapid aging of Cabo Verde's population poses significant challenges, particularly in terms of economic sustainability. The country's dependency ratio, which measures the number of dependents per 100 working-age individuals, has decreased significantly over the years. However, this ratio is expected to increase in the coming years, driven primarily by the growing elderly population. The old-age dependency ratio worsened from 7.8 to 10.2 between 2015 and 2024, an increase of almost one-third in nine years.
The consequences of rapid aging are far-reaching, and Cabo Verde must take proactive measures to address these challenges. The country's emigration rate exacerbates the issue, with 64.6% of young people aged 15-35 intending to emigrate, according to a 2025 survey. This brain drain not only reduces the workforce but also decreases the number of future taxpayers and contributors to the social security system.
To mitigate the effects of rapid aging, Cabo Verde needs to focus on building a more sustainable social security system, investing in healthcare and education, and promoting formal employment. The government must also prioritize policies that encourage population growth, such as family-friendly policies and incentives for young people to stay in the country. The formalization of employment is crucial, as it expands the contributory base and reduces future non-contributory expenditure.
The World Health Organization estimates that non-communicable diseases account for approximately 60% of deaths in Cabo Verde, highlighting the need for a well-prepared healthcare system. The country's pension system also requires reform, with the actuarial study projecting sustainability until 2053. However, this study predates the confirmed decline in fertility rates, emphasizing the need for urgent action to address the challenges posed by rapid aging.
Key points
- Cabo Verde's population is aging rapidly, with a significant increase in the proportion of elderly residents.
- The country's low fertility rate and emigration contribute to its rapidly aging population.
- Cabo Verde must prioritize policies that promote formal employment, education, and healthcare to address the challenges posed by rapid aging.
