The secondary bond market in Ghana experienced a slowdown in activity, with turnover declining by 28.56% week-to-week to GH¢1.56 billion. This decrease in trading activity was observed in the week ending September 28, 2026. According to market analysts, this decline could be attributed to various market and economic factors.
Trading in the bond market remained concentrated in specific segments, with the 2031-2034 segment accounting for 71.30% of the total turnover. This segment had an average yield of 13.93%. The 2027-2030 segment contributed 23.05% to the turnover, with an average yield of 12.37%. Meanwhile, post-2035 maturities represented a smaller portion of the turnover, at 5.65%, with an average yield of 15.34%.
A new bond issue, the September 2030 bond, recorded a turnover of GH¢5.45 million, with a weighted-average yield of 11.85%. This new bond issue is part of the government's efforts to raise funds through the bond market. Market analysts expect the secondary bond activity to improve modestly in the coming week, driven by month-end portfolio rebalancing by fund managers.
Despite the expected improvement in secondary bond activity, analysts at Databank Research believe that the upside to turnover will be capped. This is because investors are likely to redirect some of their liquidity towards COCOBOD's GH¢16.3 billion issuance programme. The programme includes book building from September 28-29, 2026, and allotment and issuance scheduled for September 30 and October 1, 2026, respectively.
COCOBOD's issuance programme comprises GH¢2.3 billion of 5-year senior unsecured amortising bonds and GH¢14.0 billion of 270-day commercial paper. This significant issuance is expected to attract investor attention and potentially limit the growth of secondary bond activity. As a result, market participants are closely watching the outcome of this issuance programme.
The bond market's performance is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers, as it reflects the overall health of Ghana's economy. The market's trends and expectations can influence investor sentiment and economic growth. In this context, Databank Research's expectations of modest improvement in secondary bond activity, coupled with capped upside due to COCOBOD's issuance programme, provide valuable insights for market participants.
The decline in bond market turnover highlights the dynamic nature of Ghana's financial markets. As market conditions and economic factors evolve, market participants must adapt and respond accordingly. With various factors at play, including government issuances, investor sentiment, and economic growth, the bond market's future performance will be closely watched by stakeholders.
Key points
- The bond market turnover declined by 28% to GH¢1.56 billion.
- Trading was concentrated in the 2031-2034 segment, accounting for 71.30% of turnover.
- COCOBOD's GH¢16.3 billion issuance programme may cap the upside to turnover.
