Artificial Intelligence Boosts Global Economy, Energy Crisis Threatens Growth

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has reported that investments linked to artificial intelligence have contributed to the global economy's resilience this year. However, the organization warns that the energy crisis related to the conflict in the Middle East may pressure global growth in 2027. The OECD expects the global economy to grow by 2.9% in 2026, compared to 3.4% in the previous year.

The OECD's semi-annual Economic Outlook report predicts that the global economy will grow by 3% in 2027, but this is lower than the 3.1% forecasted in June. The organization cites the potential impact of rising commodity and energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The report also highlights that strong spending on AI infrastructure, including data centers and semiconductors, has supported economic activity this year.

The OECD notes that the investment in AI has helped boost growth in the United States and increase technology exports from Japan and South Korea. However, the organization warns of multiple risks that threaten growth and inflation, including volatile energy markets, extreme weather conditions, and rising government bond yields. These risks could potentially lower global growth by 0.7 percentage points and raise inflation by 1.1 percentage points.

The OECD has raised its inflation forecast for the G20 economies to 4.1% in 2026, up from 4% in June, and 3.6% in 2027, up from 3.1%. The organization suggests that if inflationary pressures persist or growth falters, central banks may need to adjust their interest rate policies. The OECD also notes that there are differences in growth forecasts for major economies.

In the United States, the OECD expects growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, driven by AI-related investments that offset weak consumer spending. In China, the organization predicts that growth will slow to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, due to the ongoing impact of industrial overcapacity on investment. The OECD also forecasts stable growth in the eurozone at 1% in both 2026 and 2027.

The OECD expects inflation in the United States to reach 3.6% this year before falling to 2.6% in 2027. In the eurozone, inflation is predicted to be 3% this year and 2.9% in 2027, due to rising gas prices and reduced storage levels. In Japan, the organization forecasts growth of 0.8% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, with inflation rising to 2.6% in 2027.

The OECD has also revised its growth forecast for Canada downward to 0.9% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, citing the impact of new US tariffs on Canadian exports. The organization's economic outlook highlights the complex and uncertain nature of the global economy, with multiple factors influencing growth and inflation.

Key points

• The global economy is expected to grow 2.9% in 2026, driven by investments in artificial intelligence.
• The energy crisis related to the conflict in the Middle East may pressure global growth in 2027.
• The OECD warns of multiple risks that threaten growth and inflation, including volatile energy markets and rising government bond yields.