The All Progressives Congress (APC) has retained its lead in the October electoral map released by the political intelligence group of Politico.ng, ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The APC is projected to win 19 states. This represents a drop from 20 states in September after losing Rivers State but gaining Adamawa State.
The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has increased its projected states from eight in September to 10 in October. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) dropped from nine to eight states. The monthly electoral map is designed to indicate areas where political parties are gaining or losing ground and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final election result.
The projection represents what the outcome could look like if the election were held in October, based on political developments recorded during the period. The changes from the September projection were attributed to political developments and activities recorded during September. These include campaign mobilisation by major political parties and controversies surrounding the activities of leading opposition figures.
The leader of the group, Lai Omotola, cited the reported denial of access to Benue State to the NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi, as one of the developments considered in the October assessment. President Bola Tinubu’s working vacation and the debate surrounding his absence from the country were also considered.
Omotola further cited former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s continued criticism of the Federal Government’s economic policies, including his position on fuel subsidy. On campaign activities, the APC appeared to have recorded the highest level of mobilisation nationwide, followed by the NDC. However, the NDC was yet to constitute a presidential campaign council.
The projection identified political disagreements involving Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and APC governors as among the developments that could influence the political landscape. Omotola cautioned that the October map should not be regarded as the final outcome of the 2027 presidential election, stressing that the projection was based on the assumption of a free and fair election.
The purpose of the monthly exercise was to provide political parties with an indication of their areas of strength and weakness as they intensified their campaigns. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled the presidential and National Assembly elections for February 20, 2027.
Key points
- The APC is projected to win 19 states, the NDC 10 states, and the ADC 8 states in the October electoral map.
- The changes in projection were due to political developments and activities recorded during September.
- The projection is based on the assumption of a free and fair election and should not be regarded as the final outcome.
