ANC's Mandate Shrinks as Party Loses Nearly 700,000 Votes

The African National Congress (ANC) is still the largest party in South Africa, but its mandate is shrinking. According to the Mail & Guardian, the ANC's vote share has fallen to 30.91% from 45.49% in 2021, with nearly 700,000 fewer votes cast for the party. Despite an increase in voter turnout, the ANC's vote fell, while the total vote grew by more than a quarter. Dr. Delta Milayo Ndou, Executive Lead of the Political Campaigns Resource Hub (PCRH), analyzed the data and found that the ANC's loss of votes is significant.

The ANC received 4,496,869 votes at comparable voting stations, down from 5,186,014 in 2021, a loss of 689,145 votes or about 13%. Over the same period, the number of ward votes cast rose from 11,496,662 to 14,576,511, an increase of 3,079,849 or 27%. Turnout of registered voters at these stations climbed from 45.6% to 52.3%. The ANC's vote fell while the total vote grew, indicating that more South Africans came out to vote, but fewer of them chose the ANC.

The ANC's lead over the Democratic Alliance (DA) has also decreased significantly. In 2021, the ANC won more than twice as many votes as the DA, leading by 2,707,890. This year, the ANC leads by 937,176, and it is barely a quarter ahead. Nearly two-thirds of the gap has gone in a single term. The ANC's vote share must also be measured against the missing voters who took no part at all, including millions of eligible citizens who never registered and millions of registered voters who did not vote.

The PCRH's Missing Voter Tracker analysis shows that the parties that grew gained 4,025,092 votes at comparable stations, while the only two major ones that shrank, the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), lost 945,243. The analysis suggests that at least 3,079,849 of the gains came from people who did not cast a ward vote at these stations five years ago, indicating mobilisation and bringing new people to the polls rather than persuasion.

The DA grew by 1,081,569 votes, more than the ANC and EFF lost combined. The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party drew 1,392,945 votes in its first local election, also more than those two parties' combined losses. ActionSA more than tripled its vote. The largest constituency in this election were those who did not participate, with about 15.9 million of 29.2 million registered voters casting a ballot, which means some 13.3 million stayed home.

According to Ipsos estimates, 44.9 million South Africans are eligible to vote, and with 29.2 million registered, some 15.7 million eligible citizens never registered at all. This points to the fact that about 29 million South Africans had no say in the outcome. The pattern is sharpest in the Eastern Cape, Limpopo, and North West, where more registered voters stayed home than voted.

The ANC still leads in all three provinces, and in Limpopo and North West its vote grew. However, its heartland is not collapsing, but it appears to be under-mobilised because the voters it most needs are the ones staying home. The 2029 national elections are closer than they seem, and the parties that lead will be those that start now, counting who left in 2026, and where.

Key points

• ANC's vote share falls to 30.91% from 45.49% in 2021
• ANC loses nearly 700,000 votes despite increased voter turnout
• 29 million South Africans had no say in the outcome of the election