ANC's Electoral Decline a Warning for Namibia's Swapo Party

The African National Congress' declining electoral support in South Africa has raised concerns about the economic consequences of weak governance, unemployment, and poor service delivery. This development has significant implications for Namibia's ruling Swapo Party, which has also been in power for decades. Both parties must now operate in environments where voters increasingly judge governments by economic outcomes rather than historical credentials. The ANC's latest setback in the 4 November 2026 local government elections saw its national vote fall to 30.76%, compared with 45.59% in the 2021 municipal elections.

The ANC's decline has been attributed to persistent unemployment, municipal infrastructure problems, corruption concerns, and public dissatisfaction with service delivery. In Johannesburg, the country's commercial and financial centre, the Democratic Alliance received 34.79%, against the ANC's 20.25%. The results have significant implications for the city's administration, as it influences the operating environment for businesses through electricity, water, roads, transport, and waste management. The ability of municipal governments to maintain infrastructure, collect revenue, and deliver services is directly connected to economic performance.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula acknowledged the scale of the setback, stating that the outcome was "catastrophic" for the party. The results place renewed attention on the ANC's record in municipal administration, particularly service delivery, infrastructure maintenance, and public accountability. Swapo and the governance equation Namibia's political landscape presents a different but relevant context, with Swapo retaining the presidency in 2024, but its parliamentary representation declining from 63 seats in 2019 to 51 in 2024.

The Namibian government faces challenges such as youth unemployment, housing shortages, limited access to economic opportunities, and the cost of living. Despite having substantial mineral resources, including uranium, diamonds, gold, and emerging critical minerals, the economic significance of these resources depends on how effectively they generate domestic production, employment, government revenue, and participation by local businesses. NUDO member of parliament Vetaruhe Kandorozu linked the ANC's electoral decline to its governance record, citing alleged mismanagement, corruption, and poor service delivery.

Kandorozu warned that Swapo must move away from liberation rhetoric and deliver services to the Namibian people, or else it risks facing the same political consequences as the ANC. His observations bring the debate back to the economic responsibilities of the government and how public resources are allocated. These questions are particularly relevant in Namibia, where the contribution of extractive industries to national income does not automatically translate into sufficient employment across the wider economy.

The trade relationship between Namibia and South Africa also has significant implications, with trade between the two countries reaching approximately N$86 billion in 2025. Namibia exported goods worth N$29.21 billion to South Africa, while imports amounted to N$57.84 billion, leaving a trade deficit of approximately N$28.63 billion. International relations and trade minister Selma Ashipala-Musavyi presented the figures during the fourth Namibia-South Africa Bi-National Commission in July 2026.

The trade imbalance highlights Namibia's industrial development challenge, with increasing domestic manufacturing, agricultural processing, and mineral beneficiation could reduce dependence on imported finished products while expanding export capacity. The Namibia-South Africa Business Council provides a platform for advancing private-sector investment, joint ventures, and industrial cooperation. Its effectiveness will depend on whether the political commitments translate into tangible economic benefits for both countries.

Key points

• ANC's declining electoral support may have implications for Namibia's Swapo Party.
• Swapo must deliver services to the Namibian people to avoid facing similar political consequences as the ANC.
• The trade relationship between Namibia and South Africa has significant implications for both countries' economies.