ANC Routed in South African Local Government Elections

The African National Congress (ANC) has been defeated in the cities, towns, townships, and villages in this week's local government elections, finishing first nationally with about 31% of the vote, down from 46% in 2021. The Democratic Alliance (DA) was the star of the night, making significant gains in the urban areas. The ANC's majorities in the big urban centers are gone, and the party will have to negotiate with other parties to form coalitions.

The DA won the cities without winning them outright, and the race is now on to build coalitions from Cape Town to Tshwane. In Cape Town, the DA received about 59% of the vote, more than four times the ANC. In Johannesburg, the DA received about 39% of the vote, while the ANC received about 18% and ActionSA received about 16%. In Tshwane, the DA received about 33% of the vote, while ActionSA received about 23% and the ANC received about 21%.

The DA's own projections suggest that it drew more than a million Black voters, which, if the final data bears it out, cracks the racial ceiling that has long defined its politics. The party's leader, John Steenhuisen, said that the DA's gains were a result of its efforts to appeal to a broader range of voters. The DA's gains were not limited to the cities, as it also made significant gains in other areas, including Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay.

The ANC's defeat has raised questions about the party's future, with some calling for the resignation of President Cyril Ramaphosa and other top leaders. According to the Sunday Times, Ramaphosa himself raised resigning as party president and suggested that the entire top seven step down, or that he could leave alone. However, the ANC has denied that such a discussion took place.

The ANC's national executive committee is debating a question that no liberation movement has faced: whether those who led it to this point should go. The party's decline has been evident in two successive elections under Ramaphosa, and analysts are now speaking openly of Ramaphosa as the last ANC president to lead the country. The next national and provincial elections are due in 2029.

The local election results have significant implications for the country's politics, with no party able to govern the metros alone. Expect hard bargaining over mayoral chains and committee chairs, and a fresh test of whether South Africa's parties learned anything from the last term of motions of no confidence and revolving-door mayors. The hung councils will take at least two weeks to resolve.

The results have also raised questions about the future of the ANC and its leadership. The party's decline has created an opportunity for other parties to gain ground, and analysts are now watching to see how the ANC will respond to the challenge. The DA's gains have also raised questions about the party's ability to govern effectively and to appeal to a broader range of voters.

Key points

• The ANC finished first nationally with 31% of the vote, down from 46% in 2021.
• The DA made significant gains in the cities, winning Cape Town with 59% of the vote.
• The ANC's defeat has raised questions about the party's future and the possibility of leadership changes.