South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is leading in early results from municipal elections, but with a significantly reduced share of the vote. As of 04:24 GMT, with around 12% of votes counted, the ANC had secured approximately 32% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 31%. These results, according to the election commission, indicate a shift in the political landscape.
The outcome of these municipal elections will play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape ahead of the 2029 national election. It may also influence the succession battle within the ANC, as President Cyril Ramaphosa approaches the end of his term as party leader in 2027. The early tally may not reflect the final results, with only a small proportion of districts reporting in populous Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
A projection by South Africa's Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) suggests that the ANC could end up with around 32% of the vote in the final tally. Based on 11.5% of voting districts having declared results, the CSIR projects that the DA will get about 26% of the vote. This forecast indicates that the ANC's lead may be maintained, but with a reduced majority.
The November 4 vote was widely predicted to see the ANC lose ground nationally due to high crime rates, corruption scandals, and failing basic services such as water and electricity. In the last municipal elections in 2021, the ANC won 46% of votes, down from 62% in 2011. The DA has consistently hovered around 22% of votes in recent years.
Major municipalities, including Johannesburg, are not expected to have a clear winner, necessitating coalition governments. Parties will have two weeks from the declaration of results, expected on Sunday, to form alliances. Analysts suggest that the best option for stability in cities like Johannesburg would be for the ANC to partner with the DA.
However, the ANC and DA are ideologically opposed on key issues such as racial redress, making a partnership challenging. Alternatively, the ANC could team up with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters and former president Jacob Zuma's party uMkhonto weSizwe, excluding the pro-business DA. These potential coalitions will significantly impact the governance of major cities.
As counting continues, the final results are expected to provide a clearer picture of the country's political landscape. The municipal elections' outcome will have far-reaching implications for South Africa's governance and the ANC's future. The reduced majority for the ANC may indicate a shift in voter sentiment, with potential consequences for the party's leadership and national election prospects.
Key points
- The ANC is leading in early results with 32% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the DA on 31%.
- The final results are expected to show the ANC with around 32% of the vote, according to a CSIR projection.
- Coalition governments are likely in major municipalities, with parties having two weeks to form alliances after the declaration of results.
