The ongoing disruptions in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine have led to a significant increase in global prices. According to data from Al Jazeera, the worldwide market does not face a generalized shortage of wheat, with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations predicting a global production of 810.7 million tons in 2026. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates around 822.4 million tons for the 2026-2027 campaign.
The main challenge lies in the transportation of wheat rather than its availability. Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 30% of global wheat exports. The risks associated with the ongoing conflict, port disruptions, and increased transportation and insurance costs have reduced export capacities from the Black Sea region. This situation has driven up prices in several exporting countries that are being solicited to replace some of the volumes from the Black Sea.
In early September, the price of Australian benchmark wheat reached around $301 per ton, while high-quality Australian wheat was priced at $312 per ton. Canadian wheat with high protein content was priced at approximately $331.34 per ton, representing a 13.5% increase. These prices vary due to differences in quality, protein content, origin, and transportation costs.
Ukraine faces limitations in loading operations at several Black Sea ports due to security risks. Although exports continue through the Danube River and land routes to Romania, their capacities are insufficient to fully replace those of deep-water ports. Russia also encounters difficulties in certain ports, with some exports being redirected to Baltic and Arctic facilities, which have lower capacities.
Algeria is among the major importing countries affected by the price increase. The USDA predicts that Algeria will import around 8.3 million tons of wheat during the 2026-2027 campaign, down from a previous estimate of 8.5 million tons. This revision is attributed to the increase in available stocks on the national market. Algeria ranks fifth among countries whose import bills could be significantly impacted by rising prices.
Egypt and Indonesia are also exposed to the price hike. Egypt's wheat imports are estimated at around 12 million tons for 2026-2027, while its national production is expected to reach 10 million tons, with a consumption of 20.7 million tons. Indonesia is expected to import approximately 12.5 million tons of wheat, heavily relying on imports to supply its flour, pasta, bakery, and food industries.
The current situation does not indicate a global wheat shortage, with production remaining high and several exporting countries having significant volumes. The primary difficulty lies in transporting wheat to importing markets. The USDA predicts a decline in global wheat trade to around 213.2 million tons in 2026-2027, down from 226.6 million tons in the previous campaign.
Key points
- Algeria faces increased wheat import costs due to global price hikes caused by export disruptions from Russia and Ukraine.
- The global wheat market does not face a shortage, but transportation disruptions from the Black Sea region drive up prices.
- Several countries, including Egypt, Indonesia, and Algeria, are significantly affected by the rising wheat prices.
