World leaders gather in Asia for diplomatic summits

This week, Asia is set to host a series of high-level diplomatic summits, with global leaders converging on China, the Philippines, and Cambodia. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) leaders' meeting kicks off in China's southern technology hub of Shenzhen, with US President Donald Trump in attendance. The summit represents over 60% of global GDP and primarily promotes free trade and multilateralism. Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn significant attention.

The Apec summit is expected to focus on critical global issues such as AI supply chains, governance, tariff reductions, and the green energy transition. Trump's focus has been on denuclearisation, while regional issues like the South China Sea and the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar will also be addressed. The self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China does not recognise, is sending the founder of tech hardware company Acer as its envoy to Apec. The summits also coincide with a judgment in the international court of justice that could find Myanmar responsible for genocide.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) meeting in the Philippines, starting on Sunday, will be another key gathering. Trump will attend the meeting, and US officials will hold a sidelines meeting of the Quad – Australia, India, Japan, and the US. A Francophone summit, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron, is happening concurrently in Cambodia. Analysts see Trump's transactional style in Asia as a continuation of the pivot policy adopted by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

The pivot policy, aimed at balancing China's growing influence in the region, has been coloured by concern over China's rise. Trump's volatility and unpredictability have spooked smaller nations, who regard China as a more predictable partner. Economist Jayant Menon notes that countries in south-east Asia have been laying the groundwork for a future with reduced dependence on the US by seeking deals elsewhere. Beijing's more predictable policies do not necessarily make it more palatable for its regional neighbours, however.

The Chinese premier, Li Qiang, could have tough talks when he goes to Manila for the Asean summit, especially on the South China Sea. China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam have been locked in decades-long territorial standoffs in the busy waterway. Washington has sent military ships on "freedom of navigation operations", despite Chinese outcries. A decades-long attempt to sign a South China Sea pact is not expected to happen at this year's Asean summit.

Diplomats at the Asean summit will also focus on Myanmar, which is seeking reintegration. Each country in the group is assessing how to deal with their isolated neighbour. The coup leader, Min Aung Hlaing, remains barred from Asean but is allowed to send a representative. The timing of summits this week coincides with a judgment in the international court of justice that could find Myanmar responsible for genocide.

The diplomatic gatherings in Asia will be followed by the G20 summit in Miami, Florida, next month, which Xi is expected to attend if US and Chinese relations continue to hold steady. The summits have sparked concerns over the tussle for influence between China and the US, with analysts describing the meetings as symbolic and substantive. The outcome of the summits remains to be seen, but one thing is certain – the global political centre of gravity is firmly in Asia this week.

Key points

• The Apec summit represents over 60% of global GDP and primarily promotes free trade and multilateralism.
• The summits will address critical global issues such as AI supply chains, governance, tariff reductions, and the green energy transition.
• The diplomatic gatherings in Asia have sparked concerns over the tussle for influence between China and the US.