The World Bank has issued a warning that water scarcity poses a significant risk to Tunisia's economy. According to the bank's Tunisia Economic Monitor report, the country's GDP could be reduced by 6.4% by 2050 if water pressures and climate change are not adequately addressed. This risk is particularly concerning given that the bank projects Tunisia's growth to remain moderate, with a GDP growth rate of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.1% on average from 2027 to 2028.
The water scarcity issue is not limited to the agricultural sector, although it is the most directly exposed. Agriculture accounts for 14% of national employment and up to half of rural employment. The World Bank estimates that at least 30% of agricultural jobs could be lost by 2050 due to water and climate pressures. However, the risk extends beyond agriculture to other sectors such as tourism, agri-industry, and industry, which all rely on regular access to water.
Tunisia's water resources are already under strain. The country has approximately 380 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per inhabitant per year, which is below the international threshold of absolute scarcity. Climate change and increasing demand are expected to exacerbate this pressure. The World Bank emphasizes that the transmission of water stress into macroeconomic risk is a critical issue that needs to be addressed.
The World Bank's report, titled Tunisia's Water Challenge: From Scarcity to Resilience, highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to address the water scarcity issue. The bank estimates that investments of around $900 million per year are needed until 2050 to address the challenge. However, the bank also emphasizes that infrastructure alone is not sufficient and that reforms are needed to modernize the water code, improve water management, and increase the sustainability of the sector.
The Tunisian government has launched a Plan Eau 2050, which aims to address the country's water challenges. The plan includes investments in water infrastructure, as well as measures to improve water efficiency and reduce losses in the network. The World Bank notes that the success of the plan will depend on the government's ability to mobilize investments and improve the governance and performance of water operators.
The economic costs of inaction are significant. The World Bank estimates that the loss of 6.4% of GDP by 2050 could be avoided if the necessary investments and reforms are implemented. The bank's warning highlights the need for Tunisia to prioritize water management and make significant investments in the sector to mitigate the risks associated with water scarcity.
Key statistics highlight the severity of the issue. The World Bank estimates that water scarcity could reduce Tunisia's GDP by 6.4% by 2050, threaten at least 30% of agricultural jobs, and requires investments of $900 million per year. The country's current water resources are limited, with only 380 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per inhabitant per year.
Key points
- Water scarcity could reduce Tunisia's GDP by 6.4% by 2050.
- At least 30% of agricultural jobs could be lost by 2050 due to water and climate pressures.
- Investments of $900 million per year are needed to address Tunisia's water challenges.
