The World Bank has maintained its 2026 economic growth projection for Ghana at 4.8%, driven by resilient economic activity, rapid disinflation, and significant progress in the country's debt restructuring. This forecast is part of the Bank's October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report. The report highlights a marked improvement in investor confidence, following Ghana's debt restructuring and sustained fiscal adjustment under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
Ghana's economy is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028, following growth of 5.8% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025. Although the 2026 figure is a moderation from the previous two years, the Bank notes that the recovery remains firm, supported by strong domestic demand and expanding digital services. The economy expanded by 6.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 6.6% in the same period of 2025.
The services sector, which grew by 8.0%, accounted for nearly three-fifths of overall GDP growth, with information and communications technology activity growing by 30.9%. Industry strengthened to 4.3% from 2.4% a year earlier, helped by higher oil and gas output. However, agriculture slowed to 3.9% from 7.1%, largely due to a sharp contraction in fishing.
Private sector sentiment also improved, with Ghana's S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index rising to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July. A reading above 50 signals expansion, and the Bank links it to stronger customer demand and increased hiring. This improvement in sentiment is a positive indicator for Ghana's economic recovery.
Consumer price inflation is projected to fall from 22.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025 to 8.0% in 2026, and to stay around that level through 2028. Despite this, the Bank of Ghana has kept its policy rate at 14%, taking a cautious stance due to risks from global energy prices.
The World Bank describes Ghana's debt restructuring as a major milestone in the recovery, with public debt falling from 70.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8% at the end of 2025, before rising slightly to an estimated 52.6% in 2026. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP in 2026, and Ghana was reclassified to moderate risk on both its external and overall debt during the 2026 Article IV consultation.
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, along with continued fiscal consolidation under the IMF programme, has helped lift investor confidence. Ghana's sovereign spreads fell sharply from about 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026, attributed to the completed restructuring, sustained fiscal adjustment, and the move to moderate risk.
Key points
- The World Bank retains Ghana's 2026 growth forecast at 4.8%, driven by resilient economic activity and significant progress in debt restructuring.
- Ghana's debt restructuring has lifted investor confidence, with sovereign spreads narrowing sharply.
- The country's economy is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028.
