The World Bank has upgraded its growth forecast for Nigeria in 2026 to 4.3 percent, citing improving macroeconomic stability and strengthening investor confidence. This projection is part of the bank's October 2026 Africa Economic Update report. The report also forecasts that Nigeria's economy will grow by 4.4 percent annually in 2027 and 2028. This upward revision reflects the impact of reforms and improved economic management in Nigeria.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.43 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released this data. The World Bank also upgraded its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 percent in 2026, from 4.1 percent previously. Andrew Dabalen, World Bank chief economist for Africa, noted that the region has remained resilient despite a difficult global environment.
The World Bank warned that stronger economic growth has yet to translate sufficiently into poverty reduction in Nigeria and other African countries. Growth in per-capita income continues to lag overall economic expansion across the region. In Nigeria, growth remains insufficient to generate enough productive jobs and materially reduce poverty. The bank attributed this to elevated fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
President Bola Tinubu stated that his administration has significantly reduced Nigeria's dependence on crude oil revenue. Tinubu aims to push diversification further with gas as the centrepiece of the country's energy strategy. He made these remarks at the 5th anniversary of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission in Abuja. Tinubu was represented by Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Tinubu described the current period as Nigeria's decade of gas, noting that the country will expand gas supply for power, industry, and clean cooking. The government aims to reduce flaring and methane emissions while growing renewable energy. Tinubu emphasized that Nigeria will meet its climate responsibilities without sacrificing development and energy access.
The President credited the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) for laying the foundation for gains in the oil and gas sector. He noted that laws only set rules, while investors decide on commercial terms. Tinubu vowed to uphold the rule of law and the sanctity of contracts to attract more investment.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has recorded significant achievements in five years, according to Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri. Lokpobiri urged the Commission to remove bureaucratic bottlenecks that could discourage investors. The Commission's creation under the PIA shows Nigeria is reforming its oil and gas sector.
Key points
- World Bank upgrades Nigeria's 2026 growth forecast to 4.3%
- Nigeria reduces dependence on crude oil revenue
- Reforms and improved economic management drive growth forecast upgrade
