The World Bank has maintained its projection for Ghana's economy to grow by 4.8% in 2026, according to its October 2026 Africa Economic Update report. The report cites resilient economic activity, easing inflation, and progress in the country's debt restructuring programme as reasons for the forecast. Ghana's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to increase marginally to 4.9% in 2027 before reaching 5.0% in 2028.
Ghana's economy recorded 6.0% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 6.6% in the same period in 2025. The World Bank attributes the second-quarter performance to domestic demand, which increased by 11.2%, and a surge in investment of 53.0%. The services sector was the biggest contributor to the expansion, growing by 8.0% and accounting for almost three-fifths of total GDP growth.
The services sector's growth was driven by information and communications technology, which recorded a 30.9% increase. Industrial growth also improved during the period, rising to 4.3% from 2.4% a year earlier, supported by higher oil and gas production. However, agriculture recorded a slowdown, with growth falling to 3.9% from 7.1%, largely due to a sharp contraction in fishing activity.
The World Bank expects inflation to fall to 8.0% in 2026, from 22.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025. Inflation is projected to remain around 8.0% through 2028. Despite the decline, the Bank of Ghana has maintained a cautious monetary policy stance due to potential risks associated with global energy prices, keeping its policy rate at 14%.
Ghana's debt restructuring programme has made significant progress, with public debt declining from 70.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8% at the end of 2025, before increasing moderately to an estimated 52.6% in 2026. The country's overall fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP in 2026. The World Bank describes the progress as a key milestone in the recovery.
The World Bank's report also highlights the potential role of artificial intelligence in promoting more inclusive growth. The Bank suggests that Ghana could achieve greater poverty reduction if the gains from AI were extended to poorer households and underserved communities. Simulations cited in the report indicate that broadly distributed AI gains could lift three times as many people out of poverty compared to a situation where benefits are concentrated among households that are already able to use AI.
The World Bank's assessment of Ghana's economy also notes that the country's reclassification to moderate risk for both its external and overall debt positions represents a major improvement in the country's debt outlook. Ghana is the first country since the 2022 debt distress wave to move out of the high-risk debt category. The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026 and continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund programme have contributed to improved investor confidence.
Key points
- The World Bank maintains Ghana's 2026 growth forecast at 4.8%, citing resilient economic activity and progress in debt restructuring.
- Ghana's inflation is projected to fall to 8.0% in 2026, from 22.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025.
- The World Bank highlights the potential role of artificial intelligence in promoting more inclusive growth and poverty reduction in Ghana.
