WMO Warns 2027 Could Set New Heat Record Due to El Niño

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a warning that 2027 could be the hottest year on record, driven by a strengthening El Niño event. This climate pattern is expected to compound the hazards communities already face as the climate warms. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that countries should prepare for the possibility of another annual temperature record. El Niño generally has its greatest influence on global temperatures in the year after it develops.

The WMO presented its latest assessment of temperatures, ocean conditions, and extreme weather at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey. The assessment documents substantial human losses from extreme weather during 2026. Preliminary estimates associate Europe's heatwaves, drought, and wildfires with more than 30,000 excess deaths. In India, an April heatwave exposed an estimated 146.5 million people to extreme temperatures.

A Himalayan glacier collapse and the resulting flash flood killed more than 1,300 people in August, the agency reported. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño would act as a "risk multiplier" and that heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than historical baselines. According to the WMO, the developing El Niño event could become the strongest since 1950 and continue into 2027.

John Kennedy, WMO's head of climate information, noted that El Niño events have become more frequent during the 20th and 21st centuries. He also stated that the additional heat and moisture associated with El Niño intensify risks arising from long-term climate change. The WMO's measurements put the global average surface temperature for January to September 2026 at approximately 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average.

The estimate carries an uncertainty of ±0.13°C. On the available data, the agency expects 2015-2026 to constitute the 12 warmest years in the observational record. The four years from 2023 to 2026 account for the highest temperatures within that period, although the final assessment of 2026 will require full-year observations.

The WMO also reported changes in the oceans and the world's ice reserves. Global mean sea level reached a record high in 2026, continuing a rise driven by melting land ice and the expansion of warming seawater. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatonnes of ice during 2025, equivalent to approximately one millimetre of global sea-level rise.

The WMO plans to publish its final State of the Global Climate 2026 report in March 2027. The report will provide a comprehensive assessment of the current climate conditions and the expected impacts of El Niño on global temperatures. The Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal concerns warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years.

Key points

• El Niño is expected to compound the hazards communities already face as the climate warms.
• The WMO warns that 2027 could be the hottest year on record due to El Niño's strengthening effects.
• The global average surface temperature for January to September 2026 was approximately 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average.