The article, written by Patrick Wintour, the diplomatic editor of The Guardian, discusses a personal message from US Vice President Mike Pence to Iran, which was sent through Qatari mediation. The message, sent to Ali Khamenei's top adviser, Mohsen Rezaei, on Sunday, proposes resuming diplomatic efforts. This development may be the last hope to avoid a major confrontation between the US and Iran, which could occur shortly after the US midterm elections.
According to the article, Pence's message requests Iran to provide assurances regarding its nuclear program, which could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, in exchange for easing US sanctions. The Iranian response to the message is expected soon. However, Iran is hesitant to provide binding commitments that it may not be able to reverse, such as exporting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country.
The article highlights that the US and Iran have different expectations regarding the sequence of steps to be taken. The US wants Iran to provide specific and binding commitments regarding the removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile. In contrast, Iran wants the US to lift sanctions, end the freezing of its assets, and stop the war in all theaters, including a ceasefire in Lebanon.
The article also mentions that Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Qalibaf, has stated that Iran's conditions for negotiations are clear: the US must lift sanctions, end the freezing of Iranian assets, and stop the war in all theaters. Qalibaf also stated that an approach of "carrot and stick" will not work with Iran and that progress can only be made if the US agrees to Iran's seven conditions.
The article notes that Pence's message to Rezaei, rather than Qalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, indicates that the US believes that Rezaei, who is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has the authority to make decisions. The article also mentions that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, recently met with Rezaei to discuss the risks of a new war.
According to the article, Khamenei expressed his desire to end the current situation, which he described as "no war, no peace." However, he also stated that Iran has plans to respond to US interests in the region if a new war breaks out. These plans include targeting water desalination plants, internet cables, and power grids in the Gulf region.
The article concludes by highlighting the complexities of the situation and the need for diplomatic efforts to avoid a new conflict. The US midterm elections and the Iranian response to Pence's message will be crucial in determining the course of events in the coming days. The situation remains uncertain, and all parties involved will be watching closely for developments.
Key points
- The US Vice President's message to Iran may be the last hope to avoid a new conflict in the Gulf.
- Iran is hesitant to provide binding commitments regarding its nuclear program.
- The US and Iran have different expectations regarding the sequence of steps to be taken.
