Kenya's earnings from exports to the US market surpassed those of Uganda in the five months to July 2026. This shift occurred after the restoration of preferential market access terms under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) in February 2026. The US had previously imposed higher duties on Kenyan exports following the expiry of Agoa in September 2025.
Domestic exports to the US, including apparel and coffee, rose to Sh63.59 billion between March and July 2026. This represents a significant increase from Sh32.51 billion in the same period the previous year. The data, tracked by the Kenya Revenue Authority and published by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), highlights the impact of restored preferential market access on Kenya's exports.
The US turnaround has been attributed to resumed orders from American buyers. These buyers sought to maximize duty-free terms before the initial expiry of the trade pact. Tobias Alando, chief executive of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, noted that American buyers resumed sourcing products whose volumes had fallen after duties ranging from 15 to 42 percent were imposed when Agoa expired.
Uganda, which previously led as Kenya's top export market, saw its imports of goods such as construction materials, steel, iron, and vegetable oils worth Sh60.54 billion from Kenya during the period. This represents a 12.08 percent increase from Sh54.01 billion a year earlier. However, the growth rate of exports to Uganda was relatively marginal compared to the significant surge in exports to the US.
The KNBS data show that trade flows responded at an accelerated pace, with US-bound exports increasing by Sh31.08 billion, or 95.6 percent, between March-July 2025 and the same period this year. In contrast, shipments to Uganda increased by a relatively marginal Sh6.52 billion. This indicates that the American market generated almost five times the additional export earnings recorded from the landlocked country.
The growth in Kenya's exports to the US has been driven by several factors, including Kenya's preferential treatment compared with competing suppliers. Jaswinder Bedi, managing director of Bedi Investments, attributed the strong US export performance to Kenya's duty-free market access. Additionally, the US Trade Representative imposed Section 301 duties on several major Asian apparel exporters, giving Kenyan exporters an additional tariff advantage alongside Agoa's duty-free treatment.
The extension of Agoa through December 2028 has provided exporters with a longer planning horizon, reducing immediate uncertainty surrounding preferential market access. US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Frank Garcia described Agoa as a foundation for Kenya-US commercial ties during his September visit to Nairobi. The export data suggest that American demand has already responded to the restoration of preferential access, with the US moving from a distant second to virtually matching Uganda within three years.
Key points
- Kenya's exports to the US rose to Sh63.59 billion between March and July 2026.
- Uganda's imports from Kenya were worth Sh60.54 billion during the same period.
- The US market generated almost five times the additional export earnings recorded from Uganda.
