The upcoming US midterm elections have raised questions about whether a shift in power could benefit South Africa, particularly given the Trump administration's policies. However, Professor Henry Brady, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, believes that a Democratic victory in either chamber of Congress is unlikely to bring significant change to Washington's approach to South Africa. Brady notes that even with a Democratic win, President Trump would still retain substantial authority.
The midterm elections, set to take place on November 3, will determine the balance of power in Congress. If Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives, they could use their powers to hold hearings and control spending. However, Brady argues that Trump's veto power and the unitary executive would limit their ability to effect change. "They will have the power in the House, let's say they get that, to subpoena and hold hearings and also the power of the purse," Brady said.
Brady also noted that if Democrats only gain control of the House, without a Senate majority, their ability to effect change would be even more limited. In such a scenario, passing legislation would be difficult, and any attempts to override Trump's vetoes could lead to complications. Brady added that South Africa would likely be a low priority for Democrats, given the many pressing issues they would need to address.
One area where Congress could potentially scrutinize the Trump administration's policy is its focus on Afrikaner refugees. The February 2025 executive order prioritized refugee resettlement for Afrikaners, which Brady described as a significant departure from previous policy. While Congress might hold hearings on this issue, Brady doubts they could reverse the approach.
Brady emphasized that meaningful change in US policy towards South Africa would more likely depend on the outcome of the next presidential election. He believes that a change in administration could lead to a more significant shift in policy, rather than a change in Congress. This perspective suggests that South Africa should not rely on the midterm elections to reset its relations with the US.
The Trump administration's policy towards South Africa has been a subject of controversy, particularly its focus on Afrikaner refugees. This policy has been seen as a departure from previous approaches and has sparked debate about the US's role in promoting racial reconciliation in South Africa. As the midterm elections approach, many will be watching to see if there are any implications for US policy towards South Africa.
Ultimately, the outcome of the midterm elections will have significant implications for US politics, but its impact on US policy towards South Africa is likely to be limited. As Professor Brady noted, even with a Democratic victory, the scope for change is limited by the constitutional powers of the presidency. Therefore, South Africa should be prepared to engage with the US on a range of issues, regardless of the midterm election outcome.
Key points
- A Democratic victory in the US midterm elections is unlikely to bring significant change to Washington's approach to South Africa.
- The Trump administration's policy towards South Africa has been a subject of controversy, particularly its focus on Afrikaner refugees.
- Meaningful change in US policy towards South Africa would more likely depend on the outcome of the next presidential election.
