US Midterm Elections Unlikely to Immediately Impact South Africa Relations

The recent US midterm elections, which saw the Democratic Party gain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, are unlikely to immediately lead to a significant shift in the US approach to South Africa. According to analysts, the midterm results, while a blow to US President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, will not quickly translate into improved relations between the two countries. Trump's power will be frustrated but not eliminated, and his administration's policies towards South Africa are expected to remain largely unchanged in the short term.

The midterm elections presented historic milestones, including the election of the first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988, James Talarico, the first Muslim senator Abdul Al-Sayed, and the first black female governor Keisha Lance-Bottoms. Despite the setback for the Republicans, Trump still has more than two years in power, and his administration has presented several domestic and international challenges, including the US-Iran war, trade tariffs, rising living costs, and accelerated deportations of migrants. These issues are likely to remain a priority for the Trump administration.

Economist Dawie Roodt of Efficient Group noted that Trump's power will be frustrated but not sterilized, and that the Democrats will be confronted with a range of urgent priorities on the domestic front and global challenges before improving relations with South Africa can be considered a priority. Roodt added that the Democrats have too many domestic issues to deal with, and that South Africa is unlikely to be on the agenda for now. Trump's veto power also means that any changes to US policy towards South Africa are unlikely to occur in the short term.

The Trump administration's decision to exclude South Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) was a culmination of hostile positions it has taken against the country, including tough unilateral tariffs. Last year, the Republicans introduced the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act, proposing sanctions for ANC leaders. Roodt acknowledged that the Democrats are likely to have more cordial dealings with South Africa and the ANC, but noted that Trump's veto power means that any changes to US policy towards South Africa are unlikely to occur in the short term.

Azar Jammine, director and chief economist at Economatrix, noted that the markets were responding positively to the midterm elections, as the results were being associated with a possible end to the US-Iran war, falling oil prices, and cooling inflation and interest rates. Jammine also noted that there was a high likelihood that the US would elect a Democrat as president in the 2028 elections, which could be positive for South Africa in the long term.

Redge Nkosi, founder and executive director at Firstsource Money, said that the Democratic victory would benefit South Africa in the mid- to long-term basis, but an immediate change was not likely, especially with Trump's veto power taken into consideration. Nkosi noted that the American regime is essentially controlled by Trump with his executive orders, and that it seems unlikely that those will come to an end.

Analysts agree that while the midterm elections may not have an immediate impact on US-South Africa relations, they could have implications for the long-term trajectory of the relationship. The Democrats' victory could potentially lead to a more cordial relationship between the two countries, but Trump's veto power and the range of domestic and international challenges facing the US mean that any changes to US policy towards South Africa are unlikely to occur in the short term.

Key points

• The US midterm elections are unlikely to immediately lead to a significant shift in the US approach to South Africa.
• Trump's veto power means that any changes to US policy towards South Africa are unlikely to occur in the short term.
• The Democrats' victory could potentially lead to a more cordial relationship between the US and South Africa in the long term.