The US midterm elections, set to take place on 3 November, are expected to see a significant shift in control of Congress, with Democrats likely to gain control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. Current polling suggests that American voters are set to reject the governance style of President Donald Trump. The elections will be a referendum on Trump's presidency, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with his policies on tariffs, the war with Iran, and immigration.
Despite polls being notoriously inaccurate in the Trump era, a range of polls concur that Trump and his movement are headed for a significant defeat. Around 40% of Americans typically vote in midterm elections, but data reveal that a bumper number of voters have already gone to the polls, with many of those who have voted before Election Day being Democratic voters. Republican supporters will need to vote in unprecedented numbers on 3 November to offset the early vote totals banked by Democrats.
President Trump's favourability ratings have slumped to the low-to-mid 30s, with over 60% of Americans disapproving of his performance in office. Voters are upset about the increasing cost of living, including petrol, diesel, groceries, housing, healthcare, and childcare. Trump's promise to "bring down prices on Day One" of his presidency and end "forever wars" has not been fulfilled, leading to widespread discontent.
Rather than addressing the affordability crises affecting voters, Trump seems preoccupied with extending tariffs, continuing the war with Iran, and obsessing over vanity projects. His crisscrossing of the country to hold campaign rallies is awkward for Republicans running in competitive races, who would prefer distance from him and his disliked policies. They cannot criticise him or his policies because they need his help to draw his hardcore supporters to the polls.
Democrat Jon Ossoff, running for re-election to the US Senate in Georgia, has expressed enthusiasm for Trump's visits, saying he would be "delighted for the president to come [to Georgia] every day between now and the election." However, many voters who supported Trump in the past are now disenchanted with him and his policies' negative impact on their daily lives.
The Republican Party is fighting back with the support of deep-pocketed funders, including Elon Musk, who has donated around $440-million this election cycle through his own PAC and a Republican Senate fund. This is a significant increase over the $290-million he spent in the 2024 presidential election. The money is being spent on negative advertising about Democrats and their policies, fomenting more distrust and cynicism.
Despite the Republican Party's efforts, many voters remain disillusioned with the system, with some expressing a lack of interest in voting due to feelings that "all politicians are corrupt" or that "the system is rigged." Others justify their lack of interest in voting by saying it makes "no difference" or that "both sides are the same." The elections will ultimately show whether American voters want elected representatives who will counter Trump's governance style and focus on affordability, fairness, and decency for American society.
Key points
- Democrats are likely to gain control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the US midterm elections.
- President Trump's low approval ratings and rising inflation are key concerns for voters.
- The Republican Party is fighting back with significant donations from deep-pocketed funders, including Elon Musk.
