US midterm elections and Israel vote raise risk of renewed Iran war

The recent US midterm elections and Israel's general election have raised concerns about a potential renewed conflict with Iran. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sought to persuade US President Donald Trump to launch a strike against Iran before the Israeli election on October 27. However, Trump withheld his approval, reportedly due to concerns about the timing. Israel's chief of staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, had warned that a strike could disrupt the election and even force its postponement.

The outcome of both elections has significant implications for the region. Netanyahu's bloc finished with 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, eight short of a majority. Meanwhile, Trump has lost both chambers of Congress, with many attributing the loss to the ongoing conflict with Iran. The conventional reading is that two weakened leaders will now be more cautious, but this may not necessarily be the case. The calendar that restrained both men has run out, and what replaces it is a widening gap between what each of them needs.

In Israel, President Isaac Herzog has opened consultations with the new Knesset factions, with Gadi Eisenkot expected to collect at least 56 recommendations against Netanyahu's 53. The Islamist Ra'am party has backed Eisenkot, while Yair Lapid has stated that the American result rules out "any possibility of a unity government led by Netanyahu". If Herzog hands Eisenkot the mandate, he will have up to 42 days to build a coalition, during which time Netanyahu will govern as caretaker.

A caretaker prime minister in Israel has significant powers, including the ability to take the country to war. Legal experts have noted that the Supreme Court has historically stayed out of war decisions, and parliamentary oversight is weakest before a new Knesset forms its committees. For six weeks or more, Netanyahu will hold power with fewer checks than usual and every reason to fear losing it. His political survival has long rested on his role as Israel's defender against Iran, and a security emergency is the one development that could produce the wartime unity government his rivals refuse him.

In the US, Vice President JD Vance has written that the reason Republicans lost the midterm elections was the war with Iran, citing polling showing that voters wanted to end the conflict. Trump has called the post "largely true". On election day, Trump announced that by the end of the year "we won't be paying Israel", a reference to roughly $4 billion a year in military aid. Asked about Netanyahu's suggestion of a strike, Trump told the Financial Times: "We're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it."

Despite Trump's rhetoric, it appears that he is open to a deal with Iran. The White House has sent a letter from Vance to Iran's Supreme National Security Council through Qatar. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has proposed reopening the strait within two days of an agreement, with nuclear issues left for a second phase. Two steps could give a deal a fighting chance before January: European capitals could tell Herzog and every party leader he consults that a coalition formed on the back of a fresh war with Iran will meet a colder reception in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris.

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether diplomacy prevails or conflict reignites. Tehran is reading the same signals as Washington and Jerusalem, with Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, welcoming the American result as a rejection of war but warning that if Washington ignored the public will, Iran's "NO comes with a Nightmare". The test of restraint will be whether a new Congress is sworn in and Israel's coalition clock is running without a renewed campaign against Iran by January 3.

Key points

• Netanyahu's weakened position in Israel could lead to increased pressure to take action against Iran.
• Trump's loss in the US midterm elections may lead to a shift in his approach to the conflict with Iran.
• A deal on the table proposes reopening the strait within two days of an agreement, with nuclear issues left for a second phase.