According to US officials, American intelligence agencies estimate that Iran possesses between 1500 and 2500 missiles in its arsenal, providing Tehran with a significant capability to attack US and allied targets if a full-scale war resumes. This assessment was reported by The Wall Street Journal. The exact number of missiles is difficult to determine due to the challenges of tracking Iran's military capabilities.
Despite the US and Israel damaging Iranian missile production facilities, Iran has continued to rebuild its arsenal, albeit at a slower pace than before the war. The Iranian military has largely relied on stored components to replenish its stockpile. In addition to missiles, Iran possesses a substantial number of drones and short-range missiles. These developments contradict statements by US officials, including President Donald Trump, about the Iranian military's significant losses.
The US intelligence assessment has implications for internal discussions within the Trump administration regarding potential military action against Iran, in coordination with Israel. Israeli military officials estimate that Iran has over 1500 ballistic missiles, although estimates vary among officials in the broader region. The difficulty in determining the exact number of missiles has contributed to these discrepancies.
Simon Liden, former deputy assistant US Secretary of Defense for Middle East affairs, noted that even the lower estimate of 1500 missiles indicates that Iran has replenished more than half of its pre-war stockpile. Liden added that Iran has rebuilt its arsenal since the 12-day war in June 2025 and the start of the current conflict in February. Iran has employed ballistic missiles, drones, and advanced tactics to continue damaging US military facilities and radar systems in the Middle East.
The ongoing conflict has led to the redeployment of US military assets to Israel, which is considered a safer location. Trump has opted to maintain economic pressure on Tehran through sanctions and a blockade, rather than ordering large-scale military strikes. Vice President JD Vance attempted to open a diplomatic channel with an Iranian official during a recent lull in fighting, but Trump instructed him to cease negotiations and focus on domestic issues.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to push for renewed military action against Iran. The head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, Roman Gofman, recently met with US officials in Washington to discuss Iran. Netanyahu's efforts have been met with resistance from US allies in the Gulf, who are concerned that a new war would make them targets for Iranian missiles and drones.
Trump has hinted that the US has not achieved a complete victory over Iran, stating that he wants a "total victory, not a 93% victory." His comments have been echoed by some US officials, who argue that Iran's continued possession of a significant missile arsenal constitutes a strategic threat. However, other analysts have noted that estimating Iran's missile stockpile is complicated by the country's secrecy and the involvement of multiple missile manufacturers.
Key points
- Iran's missile arsenal is estimated to be between 1500 and 2500, contradicting US claims of significant losses.
- The US intelligence assessment has implications for internal discussions within the Trump administration regarding potential military action against Iran.
- Iran has continued to rebuild its missile arsenal despite US and Israeli efforts to damage its production facilities.
