The United States has officially ended its military mission in Iraq, marking a significant shift in the country's security landscape. The withdrawal, mainly from an airbase in Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, was celebrated as a victory by Tehran and its allies. The Iraqi government had set an initial deadline of September 30 for all militias, including Iranian-backed militias, to disarm and for the full withdrawal of the US-led coalition from Iraq.
The pullout comes 23 years after US-led forces toppled Saddam Hussein, triggering years of upheaval and chaos, culminating with the rise of Islamic State. The Pentagon stated that the United States and its coalition partners formally concluded Operation Inherent Resolve and that the Pentagon will continue to provide targeted training and intelligence support to Iraqi partners. The Iraqis are expected to lead the effort to secure the country, an ally of both Washington and Tehran, and keep the remnants of Islamic State suppressed.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps urged Americans to vote out Trump's allies in Congress as US forces exit from neighbouring Iraq, where Tehran has steadily entrenched itself through proxies since the Iraqi dictator's fall. The withdrawal of US forces is broadly popular among Iraqis, but some worry that security forces trained and funded by the United States still can't protect the country, where 4,500 American forces died in more than 20 years of war.
The Iraqi Prime Minister's office declared a public holiday from September 30 to October 3, following the final withdrawal of US-led coalition troops, and called for celebrations to mark Iraq's 'Sovereignty Days'. Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises the security forces, noted that the lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous. He raised concerns about the potential for Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias to fill the security gap.
Some Iraqi security officials, both in the federal government and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, say the US pullout also risks giving new life to Islamic State fighters, who, despite the defeat of their self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, retain a sleeper cell network. At their height, the militants occupied a third of Iraq and slaughtered thousands of people, including hundreds they videotaped themselves gunning down inside a former US military base.
Ahmed Younis, a Baghdad-based political analyst, expressed concerns that Iran's proxies will feel increasingly empowered in the absence of a Western military presence. These groups may attempt to expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidating their presence within key institutions. The US pullout may create an opening for Islamic State to regroup, with some security officials warning that the militants could obtain armed drones or improvised explosive drones.
The US-led coalition had been providing Iraqi security forces with critical intelligence on Islamic State movements, aerial surveillance, and reconnaissance. The Iraqi government will need to develop a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase to ensure the country's security. The withdrawal of US forces marks a significant change in the country's security dynamics, with Iran and its allies emerging as winners in the region.
Key points
- The US withdrawal from Iraq has raised concerns over a potential security vacuum and the resurgence of Islamic State.
- Iran's proxies may feel empowered in the absence of a Western military presence, potentially expanding their role in shaping state policies.
- The Iraqi government will need to develop a viable Plan B to ensure the country's security in the post-coalition phase.
