US forces are scheduled to withdraw from their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, marking the end of a two-decade presence. This departure has been hailed as a victory by Iran and its allies, who have gained significant influence in the country. During their stay, 4,500 American soldiers lost their lives. The withdrawal was agreed upon in 2024 under President Joe Biden and carried out by Donald Trump's administration, despite its ongoing conflict with Iran.
Iraqi security experts warn that the US withdrawal could enable Tehran and its allies to exert greater control over the country. They also fear that this power vacuum may allow other adversaries, including Islamic State, to regain a foothold. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst, notes that Iran will benefit strategically from the coalition's departure, as it removes a military presence that counterbalanced Tehran's influence in Iraq.
Iran-backed militia groups are expected to capitalize on the momentum from the US withdrawal to increase their influence over Iraq's security and political decision-making. Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the US withdrawal as a "historic victory" for Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and a "crushing defeat" for the American project. The withdrawal is seen as a significant achievement for Iran's "axis of resistance."
While many Iraqis welcome the departure of US forces, some experts argue that the withdrawal is premature. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah, expressed concerns that Iraq is not yet ready to take over its security file. He fears that the US-led coalition's departure will create a vacuum that could be exploited by extremist groups.
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to a prolonged occupation, with American forces fighting a counterinsurgency campaign and later helping to defeat Islamic State. The US military presence in Iraq has been a key aspect of the country's complex relationships with both the United States and Iran. Tensions between the US and Iran have played out in Iraq, with Iran-backed militia groups launching attacks on US bases.
Iran views the US withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for its "axis of resistance" and a step towards forcing American forces to leave the entire Middle East. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the National Security Commission of Iran's Parliament, welcomed the withdrawal, saying it would lead to "lasting security" in Iraq. However, Washington has accused Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq of playing a role in the wider Middle East conflict.
The US withdrawal also raises concerns about the potential resurgence of Islamic State. Iraqi security officials warn that the departure of US forces could give new life to Islamic State fighters, who retain a sleeper cell network despite their defeat nearly a decade ago. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani noted that the lack of US intelligence, logistical support, and drones will give Islamic State a chance to regroup.
Key points
- The US withdrawal from Iraq may give Iran and its allies greater influence over the country's security and politics.
- The departure of US forces could create a power vacuum that extremist groups, including Islamic State, may exploit.
- The US withdrawal marks the end of a two-decade military presence in Iraq, where 4,500 American soldiers lost their lives.
