The United States is set to hold its midterm election on November 3, 2026, to determine which party will control Congress. Currently, the Republican Party holds majority in both the House and Senate. Historically, the ruling party has often lost seats in midterm elections, but this does not necessarily translate to a loss in the presidency. For instance, President Bill Clinton's Democratic Party lost both houses in the 1994 midterm election, yet he won re-election.
The midterm election differs significantly from the presidential contest, with the former focusing on the popular vote and the latter dependent on Electoral College votes. A presidential candidate can win the popular vote but lose the election if they receive fewer than 270 Electoral College votes. The midterm election is held every two years, while the presidential election occurs every four years. Both, however, require a primary election first.
Although President Donald Trump is not on the ballot and will not seek re-election in 2028, his influence remains significant as this election can be seen as a referendum on his presidency. The economy under Trump's second term has faced challenges, including increased inflation and a higher cost of living. For example, coffee prices have risen nearly 23% during Trump's second term.
Trump's net approval rating has decreased substantially, currently standing at -27, the lowest in US presidential history. This low approval rating could impact the Republican Party's performance in the midterm election. In the 1946 midterm election, the Republican Party gained control of Congress, and Truman's low approval rating was attributed to his decision to authorize the use of atomic bombs in Japan.
Analysts believe that the Democrats could win the House but are uncertain about their chances in the Senate. To gain control of the Senate, the Democrats need to win four state seats, including Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. These states are considered toss-ups, and early voting data in Texas does not indicate party affiliation, making it difficult to predict the outcome.
The reliability of polls has been questioned in past elections, including the 2016 presidential election and the 2022 midterm election. Despite this, analysts believe that this election may be different, with consistent polling data since September indicating a desire among voters to vote for Democratic candidates. Non-White voters are also favoring Democratic candidates, which could impact turnout.
The outcome of the election could have significant implications, including the potential for an African American Speaker of the House for the first time in US history. Hakeem Jeffries, the current House Minority leader, would likely be selected as Speaker if the Democrats win the House. The party that turns out its supporters could have a better chance of winning, making voter turnout a crucial factor in the election.
Key points
- The US midterm election will determine control of Congress, with the ruling Republican Party's majority in the House and Senate at stake.
- The election can be seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump's presidency, with his low approval rating potentially impacting the Republican Party's performance.
- The outcome of the election could have significant implications, including the potential for an African American Speaker of the House.
