The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Nino is expected to intensify and peak in December, potentially bringing record-breaking temperatures to the planet. According to the WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, El Nino will continue to strengthen, leading to above-average temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns. This could increase the risk of drought and floods in various regions, exacerbating the effects of man-made climate change.
El Nino is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that occurs when surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warm up, causing global changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. The current El Nino event is expected to be one of the strongest since at least 1950, with sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific forecast to reach record levels.
The WMO's forecast is based on consensus across 13 leading national and international meteorological centres. According to WMO chief Celeste Saulo, El Nino is "firmly established and strengthening rapidly." The organization predicts a near-100 percent likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027. Saulo explained that El Nino does not add new heat to the planet but releases heat stored in the ocean, which is currently the warmest on record.
The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific has increased significantly, from 1.6C above normal in June to 2.5C above normal in August. For the period of October-November-December, the anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7C above normal, potentially breaking the previous record of 2.6C set in 2015-2016. This could have severe consequences for global weather patterns and ecosystems.
The current El Nino event is already having a significant impact on some regions, including Central America, where animals and crops are dying due to drought. The phenomenon is also expected to contribute to extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, in different parts of the world. The WMO's warning highlights the need for countries to prepare for the potential consequences of El Nino.
The last El Nino event contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high, with temperatures around 1.55C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically occurs later. The WMO's forecast suggests that this El Nino event could have a significant impact on global temperatures.
The United Nations' warning emphasizes the need for countries to take action to mitigate the effects of El Nino and climate change. As the planet continues to experience rising temperatures, it is essential for governments and communities to work together to develop strategies for managing the impacts of extreme weather events. By understanding and preparing for El Nino, countries can reduce the risks associated with this phenomenon.
Key points
- El Nino is expected to peak in December and could be one of the strongest since at least 1950.
- The phenomenon is forecast to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns.
- Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during October-November-December.
