The United Nations Security Council is set to hold its fourth informal straw poll on September 29. This upcoming poll aims to gauge the level of support for candidates vying for the position of Secretary-General, a role currently held by António Guterres. The poll takes place after the UN General Assembly’s high-level week, which provided candidates with an opportunity to lobby and assess their backing among member states.
Following three previous polls, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan is the only contender to have reached the nine-vote “encourage” threshold required for a formal Council decision. However, she also received five “discourage” votes. Other candidates, including Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, and Senegal’s Macky Sall, trail behind with varying numbers of encourage and discourage votes.
The current standings of the candidates are as follows: Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett has eight “encourage” votes and six “discourage” votes, while Olara Otunnu and Rafael Grossi each have five encourages and seven to eight discourages respectively. Macky Sall recorded five encourages and nine discourages, reflecting a broader spread of support and opposition among the candidates.
Uncertainty surrounds the opposition from permanent members of the Security Council. Although no permanent member has publicly opposed Rebeca Grynspan, analysts note that any of her five discourage votes could still stem from a veto-capable state. This factor will only become clear in the colour-coded poll scheduled for October.
The upcoming fourth poll will test whether leading candidates can reduce discourage votes and build momentum ahead of the decisive colour-coded voting stage. This stage will reveal how permanent members cast their discourage votes, providing clarity on the level of support for each candidate.
Greece will preside over the Security Council in October and is expected to oversee the transition to colour-coded voting. This change in voting procedure will provide a clearer picture of the support landscape and help determine which candidate will be the next Secretary-General.
The outcome of the fourth informal straw poll will be crucial in shaping the future of the Secretary-General selection process. As candidates continue to lobby and gauge support, the poll will provide valuable insights into their chances of securing the top position at the United Nations.
Key points
- The UN Security Council will hold its fourth informal straw poll on September 29 to test candidate support for the next Secretary-General.
- Rebeca Grynspan is the only contender to have reached the nine-vote “encourage” threshold required for a formal Council decision.
- The colour-coded voting stage, scheduled for October, will reveal how permanent members cast their discourage votes.
