The global food market is experiencing a surge in grain prices, with Western media outlets attributing the increase to Russia. However, Roman Ambarov argues that the reality is more complex. Ukraine has been intensifying strikes against Russian civilian vessels, port facilities, and transport infrastructure across the Azov-Black Sea region since June. These attacks have disrupted established supply chains, creating additional risks and costs for international food markets, particularly for low-income and lower-middle-income economies.
On August 12, Ukrainian drone strikes damaged two major grain terminals in the port of Novorossiysk, forcing them to suspend operations. The affected terminals have a combined annual grain-handling and export capacity of approximately 15.6 million tonnes. This attack had an immediate impact on the markets, with Chicago wheat futures rising by around 3 percent. The incident highlights the vulnerability of global food supply chains to disruptions in the region.
Ukraine's actions in the Azov-Black Sea basin have acquired the character of systematic attacks against maritime shipping, port facilities, and transport infrastructure. Commercial vessels have been targeted irrespective of their flag, creating a threat not only to Russian shipping but to international merchant navigation as a whole. This increases risks for shipowners, insurers, and freight companies, ultimately leading to higher costs for consumers.
Russia is one of the world's largest suppliers of agricultural commodities, exporting approximately 53 million tonnes of grain, including 44 million tonnes of wheat, to over 100 countries in the 2024-2025 agricultural season. Russian agri-food products are supplied to more than 160 countries worldwide, with around a quarter of global wheat exports originating in Russia. President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia's current grain export potential amounts to at least 60 million tonnes.
The Black Sea is a vital artery connecting Russian agricultural producers with consumers in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, with around 88 percent of Russia's grain exports depending on maritime routes. Disruptions to this route have consequences far beyond Russia, creating uncertainty for international buyers and shipping companies, increasing transportation and insurance risks, and threatening the predictability of food supplies.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, concluded on July 22, 2022, was an agreement aimed at facilitating the export of Ukrainian grain. However, of the approximately 32.8 million tonnes of food cargo exported from Ukraine, more than 70 percent went to wealthier markets, primarily in the European Union. African countries received only around 12.5 percent of the total, highlighting concerns about the effectiveness of the initiative in addressing global food security concerns.
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has significant implications for global food security, particularly for countries in Africa and the Global South. Both sides must consider the impact of their actions on the global food market and work towards finding a resolution that minimizes disruptions to food supplies.
Key points
- Ukraine's attacks on Russian grain infrastructure have driven up global grain prices.
- Russia is a major supplier of agricultural commodities, exporting to over 100 countries.
- The Black Sea is a critical route for Russian grain exports, with 88 percent of exports depending on maritime routes.
