Uganda recently went through another election, and the Patriotic League of Uganda is already positioning itself for 2031. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, a 52-year-old prominent figure, and Odrek Rwabwogo are being discussed as possible political actors. Various individuals are behaving as though the succession is the next great political question. President Museveni has reminded everyone that he sees himself potentially remaining part of the story for another 18 years. This statement has sparked debate and speculation about his future plans.
President Museveni's statement was about his life and his Pan-African mission, not an explicit declaration of another 18-year presidential term. However, Ugandans are familiar with Museveni's politics and understand that such a distinction is unnecessary. Museveni's father, Amos Kaguta, died at 96 in 2013, and his uncle, Eriya Riisi, died in 2018 at 94. Given his family's history of longevity, it is difficult to convince Museveni that he will retire at 100.
Museveni has expressed displeasure at critiques that attribute his recent failures to age and fatigue. This has led to speculation about what happens to succession calculations. Many people have been discussing the next president and how the transition is shaping up, forgetting that the current president is still in office. The excitement around the Muhoozi-Rwabwogo contest is particularly interesting, with some people imagining an artificial contest between the two.
The recent appearance of Odrek Rwabwogo and his wife Patience in court has sparked analysis of every movement and appearance as though the succession had already begun. However, it is essential to consider that Museveni remains the center of the political system. He has spent four decades building a political system around his authority and has demonstrated the capacity to shape and control it.
The existence of competing centers of attention does not automatically mean that Museveni has lost control. Sometimes, what appears to be disorder is simply what the person at the center is allowing to happen. The 18-year period, whether real or delusional, will be interesting, with many changes expected in the economy, technology, and politics. Muhoozi will be 70, and Odrek will be 75 if Museveni reaches 100.
Uganda is an exceptionally young country, with a median age of roughly 17-18 years. In 18 years, the young people who constitute the country's political future will be adults with different experiences and expectations. They may not care about the current political arguments, including the old NRM-PLU succession debate. They may ask entirely different questions, changing the dynamics of the succession puzzle.
The debate on succession has raised questions about who will replace Museveni. However, if the when has been fixed further ahead, everything changes, including the who. The 18-year announcement has sparked an uncomfortable lesson: the future is uncertain, and predictions about Uganda's politics in 2044 are challenging to make.
Key points
- President Museveni's statement about remaining influential for 18 more years has sparked debate on succession.
- Uganda's exceptionally young population may have different expectations and questions in the future.
- The existence of competing centers of attention does not automatically mean Museveni has lost control of the political system.
